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GBP Outlook Mired by Dovish BoE- NZD/USD Breaks Out

GBP Outlook Mired by Dovish BoE- NZD/USD Breaks Out

2014-11-12 17:20:00
David Song, Strategist
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Talking Points:

- Dovish BoE Fails to Spur Fresh Monthly Lows for GBP/USD; MPC Retains Couse for Monetary Policy.

- NZD/USD Breaks Out of Descending Channel Despite RBNZ Verbal Intervention.

- USDOLLAR Carves Narrowing Range as Bearish RSI Divergence Takes Shape.

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GBP/USD

GBP/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • May see GBP/USD continue to pare the bearish market reaction to the Bank of England (BoE) Inflation Report as it holds above the opening monthly low (1.5788); will the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hold above oversold territory?
  • Despite the downward revision to the U.K.’s growth/inflation forecast, looks as though BoE remains on course to normalize monetary policy in 2015.
  • Nevertheless, DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail-crowd has been net-long GBP/USD since October 28, with the ratio currently standing at +1.47.

NZD/USD

NZD/USD Daily Chart
  • Despite the verbal intervention from Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Graeme Wheeler, the ongoing concerns for a housing bubble may have improved the appeal of NZD/USD as the central bank refrains from removing the temporary restrictions on private-sector lending.
  • A break above the 0.7900 handle would bring up the 78.6% retracement from the October high coming in around 0.7950-60 as the RSI fails to retain the near-term bearish momentum.
  • Nevertheless, may continue to see lower highs & lows on a longer-term basis as the RBNZ remains in no rush to further normalize monetary policy.

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Read More:

Price & Time: USD Waiting On A Catalyst

GBP/USD Continuation, EUR/GBP ST Triangle in Play after BoE Inflation Report

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11249.40

11249.86

11214.17

0.11

58.71%

GBP Outlook Mired by Dovish BoE- NZD/USD Breaks Out USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index continues to face a narrowing range even as Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser, one of the dissenters on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) argues to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later.
  • As a bearish formation takes shape on the SSI, need to see a topside break in the oscillator to look for a further appreciation in the greenback.
  • Even though the wedge formation favors a continuation of the bullish trend, a close below 11,211 (23.6% retracement) should highlight a larger correction for USDOLLAR.

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Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Wholesale Inventories (SEP)

15:00

0.3%

0.2%

Wholesale Trade Sale (SEP)

15:00

0.2%

-0.1%

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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