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JPY Hit by Fiscal Concerns- NZD to Face More Verbal Intervention?

JPY Hit by Fiscal Concerns- NZD to Face More Verbal Intervention?

2014-11-11 17:05:00
David Song, Strategist
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Talking Points:

- USD/JPY Climbs to Fresh High as Tax-Hike Delay Raises Threat of Snap Election.

- NZD/USD Continues to Carve Lower-Highs; Will RBNZ Wheeler Retain the Verbal Intervention?

- USDOLLAR Holds Above 23.6% Fib Retracement Ahead of Fed Rhetoric.

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USD/JPY

USD/JPY Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • USD/JPY advances to a fresh monthly high of 116.09 amid growing talks of snap election in December as Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe looks to delay the next sales-tax hike.
  • Long-term outlook for the Yen remains bearish as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) further expands asset-purchase program; USD/JPY may continue to work its way towards the October 2007 high (117.93) especially as the Relative Strength Index fails to preserve the bearish formation from back in September.
  • The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail-crowd has been net-short USD/JPY since November 4, with the ratio current standing at -1.32.

NZD/USD

NZD/USD Daily Chart
  • In light of the ongoing series of lower-highs in NZD/USD, bearish outlook remains favorable especially as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) fails to establish a bullish trend.
  • NZD/USD remains vulnerable to further losses as Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Graeme Wheeler retains the verbal intervention on the kiwi.
  • Downside targets will remain in focus for NZD/USD as long as RBNZ retails a wait-and-see approach, with the next region of interest coming in around 0.7610-20 (50% expansion).

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Read More:

Price & Time: Big Test Coming Up For Crude

COT: Euro Positioning Close to a Record

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11244.93

11290.79

11243.61

-0.15

79.35%

JPY Hit by Fiscal Concerns- NZD to Face More Verbal Intervention?USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index carving narrowing range amid holiday trade; still waiting to hear from Charles Plosser, Narayana Kocherlakota, Janet Yellen, Stanley Fischer, James Bullard and Jerome Powell.
  • Despite the short-term wedge formation, the continuation pattern continues to favor the approach to buy dips in USDOLLAR as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) moves away from its easing cycle.
  • Will continue to look for higher-lows in USDOLLAR to favor another run at 11,312 (78.6% retracement) to 11,315 (78.6% expansion) along with the RSI trading back in overbought territory.

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Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

NFIB Small Business Optimism (OCT)

12:30

96.0

96.1

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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