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Gold Risks Larger Rebound as Bearish RSI Momentum Stalls

Gold Risks Larger Rebound as Bearish RSI Momentum Stalls

2014-11-04 18:37:00
David Song, Strategist
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Talking Points:

- Gold Risks Larger Rebound as Relative Strength Index (RSI) Holds Support.

- Oil Continues to Search for Support, RSI Pushes Back Into Oversold Territory.

- USDOLLAR Outlook Remains Bullish as Fed Officials See Normalization in 2015.

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XAU/USD

Gold Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Gold looks poised to hold above the $1,160 region as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to find support around the 23 figure.
  • With the monthly opening range taking shape, will look for a continuation of the series of lower highs & lows as the precious metal appears to be in a near-term bottoming process.
  • Nevertheless, retail-crowd remains net-short XAU/USD, with the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) currently standing at -1.14.

USOil

Oil Daily Chart
  • Oil remains at a risk for a further decline as the RSI dips back into oversold territory; need to see a break and close below the Fibonacci overlap from $75.40-80 to look for a further decline over the remainder of 2014.
  • Will keep a close eye on the growing relationship between oil prices & the U.S. dollar as the two securities show a -0.531 correlation from the beginning of October.
  • With that said, a move back above former support ($79.20-60) would provide conviction/confirmation that a lower-low is in place; will look for a lower-high down the road.

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Read More:

Price & Time: A Contrarian’s Paranoia

COT: Yen Speculators Caught Off Guard

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11164.43

11202.85

11154.46

-0.34

77.56%

Gold Risks Larger Rebound as Bearish RSI Momentum StallsGold Risks Larger Rebound as Bearish RSI Momentum Stalls

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index vulnerable to a near-term pullback as RSI struggles to push back into overbought territory; will watch former resistance (11,143) for new support.
  • Even though the U.S. dollar rally may looked stretched, the long-term outlook remains bullish as the FOMC prepares to normalize monetary policy, with St. Louis Fed President James Bullard seeing higher borrowing costs in 2015.
  • A break & close above 11,216 (38.2% expansion) should bring up 11,308 (50.0% expansion)-11,312 (78.6% retracement) on our radar.

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Trade Balance (SEP)

13:30

-$40.2B

-$43.0B

ISM New York (OCT)

14:45

62.0

54.8

Factory Orders (SEP)

15:00

-0.6%

-0.6%

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (NOV)

15:00

46.5

46.4

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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