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GBP/USD Bearish RSI Break to Favor Downside Targets

GBP/USD Bearish RSI Break to Favor Downside Targets

2014-11-03 17:34:00
David Song, Strategist
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Talking Points:

- GBP/USD Outperforms to Kick Off November Trade; Threatens Bullish Momentum Ahead of BoE

- USD/CAD Bullish RSI Break to Favor Topside Targets Ahead of Ivey PMI, Employment.

- USDOLLAR to Face Slowing 3Q GDP & Subdued PCE Inflation.

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • GBP/USD outperforms coming into November, but a failure to maintain the bullish momentum in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) would bring the downside targets back on the radar; 1.5900-1.6150 range in focus.
  • Bank of England (BoE) widely expected to retain current policy; may continue to see 7-2 split should the committee refrain from releasing a policy a statement.
  • Nevertheless, retail-crowd remains net-long GBP/USD from the end of October, with the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) currently standing at +1.31.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD Daily Chart
  • After carving higher-low in October, USD/CAD threatens resistance ahead of Canada Employment report, which is expected to show a 5.0K contraction in job growth.
  • Despite the more neutral tone from the Bank of Canada (BoC), pair looks poised for a further advance as the RSI breaks out of the near-term bearish trend.
  • Want to see a close above 1.1310 (23.6% retracement) to 1.1320 (61.8% expansion) for conviction/confirmation for a higher-high.

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates Across the Majors!

Read More:

Price & Time: Where To Next For USD/JPY?

Monetary Policy on Trial with RBA, ECB, and NFPs this Week

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11196.6

11201.17

11153.22

0.56

74.82%

GBP/USD Bearish RSI Break to Favor Downside TargetsUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index may continue to push fresh highs ahead of the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report as the ISM Manufacturing’s employment component shows a faster rate of growth for October.
  • Will keep a close eye on ADP Employment (+220K) and the employment component for ISM Non-Manufacturing to gauge market expectations for NFPs.
  • Next topside target comes in at 11,216 (38.2% expansion) following by 11,308 (50.0% expansion)-11,312 (78.6% retracement).

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Markit Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (OCT F)

14:45

56.2

55.9

ISM Manufacturing (OCT)

15:00

56.1

59.0

ISM Prices Paid (OCT)

15:00

58.0

53.5

Construction Spending (MoM) (SEP)

15:00

0.7%

-0.4%

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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