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GBP/USD Continues to Carve Lower Highs & Lows Despite RSI Divergence

GBP/USD Continues to Carve Lower Highs & Lows Despite RSI Divergence

2014-10-15 16:30:00
David Song, Strategist
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Talking Points:

- GBP/USD Lags Major Counterpart as Jobless Claims Disappoints While Wage Growth Ticks Higher.

- Gold Hits Fresh Monthly High amid Dollar Weakness; Bullish RSI Momentum Favors Larger Correction.

- USDOLLAR Slips to Fresh Monthly Low Amid Slew of Dismal Data; Fed Rhetoric in Focus.

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD Daily Chart
  • GBP/USD lags its major counterparts and continues to carve a series of lower highs & lows as U.K. Jobless Claims falls 18.6K in September to mark the smallest decline since May 2013.
  • Despite the uptick in Average Weekly Earnings, the bearish sentiment surrounding the British Pound may continue to gather pace over the near-term as the majority of the Bank of England (BoE) remains in no rush to normalize monetary policy.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) continues highlight the risk for a further decline in GBP/USD as the retail crowd continues to fight the bearish trend, with the ratio currently sitting at +1.42.

Gold

Gold Daily Chart
  • Gold climbs to a fresh monthly high of $1,249 and looks poised for a larger correction amid the weakness in the greenback; will continue to favor topside targets as the bullish RSI momentum gathers pace.
  • Despite weakening oil prices, precious metals may continue to follow U.S. dollar price action, but the near-term advance may get exhausted relative soon amid the steep slopes in price & RSI .
  • Next key topside region of interest comes in around $1,270 (50.0% expansion) to $1,276 (61.8% retracement).

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates Across the Majors!

Read More:

Price & Time: What is Gold Really Telling Us?

When Will GBP-crosses Find Support? - EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY, GBP/USD

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10985.91

11077.18

10920.41

-0.64

224.20%

GBP/USD Continues to Carve Lower Highs & Lows Despite RSI DivergenceUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index slips to fresh monthly low of 10,918 as U.S. Retail Sales, Empire Manufacturing and Producer Prices disappoint; want to see a close below 10,989 (50.0% expansion) to favor a further decline.
  • Appears to be carving a bullish flag pattern ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on October 29; will the Beige Book fuel interest rate expectations?
  • 10,869 (78.6% retracement) to 10,887 (61.8% retracement) is on our radar amid the bearish patterns, followed by 10, 752 (38.2% expansion) to 10,759 (61.8% retracement).

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

MBA Mortgage Applications (OCT 10)

11:00

--

5.6%

Empire Manufacturing (OCT)

12:30

20.25

6.17

Advance Retail Sales (SEP)

12:30

-0.1%

-0.3%

Advance Retail Sales ex Autos (SEP)

12:30

0.2%

-0.2%

Advance Retail Sales ex Auto and Gas (SEP)

12:30

0.4%

-0.1%

Retail Sales Control Group (SEP)

12:30

0.4%

-0.2%

Producer Price Index (MoM) (SEP)

12:30

0.1%

-0.1%

Producer Price Index (YoY) (SEP)

12:30

1.8%

1.6%

Producer Price Index ex Food and Energy (MoM) (SEP)

12:30

0.1%

0.0%

Producer Price Index ex Food and Energy (YoY) (SEP)

12:30

1.7%

1.6%

Business Inventories (AUG)

14:00

0.4%

0.2%

Monthly Budget Statement (SEP)

18:00

$90.0B

$105.8B

Federal Reserve Publishes Beige Book

18:00

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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