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USD/CAD Inverse H&S Remains in Play Ahead of Canada Employment

USD/CAD Inverse H&S Remains in Play Ahead of Canada Employment

2014-10-09 16:25:00
David Song, Strategist
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Talking Points:

- USD/CAD Holds Monthly Opening Range Ahead of Canada Employment.

- EUR/USD Fails to Hold Gains on Dovish ECB President Mario Draghi.

- USDOLLAR Downside Targets Favored as FOMC Curbs Interest Rate Expectations.

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USD/CAD

USD/CAD Daily Chart
  • USD/CAD holds opening monthly low (1.1070) ahead of Canada’s Employment report, which is expected to show a 20.0K rebound in job growth.
  • Seems as though the Bank of Canada (BoC) will retain its current stance as long as the Fed sticks to its zero-interest rate policy, which should continue to foster a bullish long-term outlook for USD/CAD.
  • After carving a higher-high earlier this month, we are look for a higher-low in USD/CAD as the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern continues to unfold; a break of the March high (1.1277) should expose 1.1320 (61.8% expansion).

EUR/USD

EUR/USD Daily Chart
  • EUR/USD under pressure as European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi retains a highly dovish tone for monetary policy, but fails to provide further details surrounding the asset-backed securities (ABS) & covered-bond purchase program.
  • Despite the pullback from 1.2790, have to keep a close eye on the near-term series of higher-highs & lows in EUR/USD.
  • Seeing increased volatility in the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) for EUR/USD as it shows a net-long retail positioning, with the ratio currently standing at +1.10.

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates Across the Majors!

Read More:

Price & Time: The Squeeze Play

Scalping the AUDUSD Opening Range- Longs Favored Above 8660

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11022.94

11026.62

10946.13

0.34

121.60%

USD/CAD Inverse H&S Remains in Play Ahead of Canada EmploymentUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index at risk for larger correction after closing below 10,993 (23.6% retracement) especially as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes highlight the spillover effects of a stronger greenback.
  • Recent comments suggests Fed remains in no rush to normalize monetary policy as dollar strength further dampens the central bank’s scope to achieve the 2% target for inflation.
  • Next downside objective comes in just below the 38.2% retracement around 10,869 (78.6% retracement) to 10,887 (61.8% retracement), with 10, 752 (38.2% expansion) to 10,759 (61.8% retracement) standing as the longer-term targets on the radar.

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Initial Jobless Claims (OCT 4)

12:30

295K

287K

Continuing Claims (SEP 27)

12:30

2410K

2381K

Wholesale Inventories (AUG)

14:00

0.3%

0.7%

Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (AUG)

14:00

0.3%

-0.7%

Fed's James Bullard Speaks on Monetary Policy

14:30

ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks on Monetary Policy

15:00

Fed's Richard Fisher Speaks on Monetary Policy

15:00

Fed's Daniel Tarullo Speaks on Banking Regulation

17:10

Fed's Jeffrey Lacker Speaks on U.S. Economy

17:15

Fed's Richard Fisher Speaks on Monetary Policy

17:30

Fed's John Williams Speaks on U.S. Economy

19:40

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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