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EUR/USD at Risk for Larger Recovery as ECB Buys Time, SSI Flips

EUR/USD at Risk for Larger Recovery as ECB Buys Time, SSI Flips

2014-10-08 16:15:00
David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- EUR/USD Remains Capped by 1.2700 Ahead of ECB Monthly Report, Draghi Speech.

- GBP/USD Continues to Carve Lower-Highs; Will BoE Vote 7-2 to Retain Current Policy?

- USDOLLAR Holds 11,000 Pivot Despite Dovish Rhetoric from William Dudley, Charles Evans.

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  • Despite the bullish break in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), EUR/USD needs to break & close above the 1.2700 pivot to 1.2720 (23.6% retracement) region for a larger correction.
  • With European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi scheduled to speak tomorrow at 15:00 GMT, the fresh commentary may prop up the single currency should the central bank head look to buy more time.
  • The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) for EUR/USD has flipped for the first time since the pair was trading at 1.3600, with the ratio currently standing at -1.11.


  • GBP/USD continues carve lower-highs ahead of Bank of England (BoE) policy meeting, with the central bank widely expected to maintain its current policy; will they refrain from releasing a statement?
  • Another 7-2 split within in the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may heighten the bearish sentiment surrounding the British Pound as it drags on interest rate expectations.
  • As GBP/USD retains the bearish RSI momentum from July, the next key downside objective comes in around 1.5890 (61.8% retracement) to 1.5900 (50.0% expansion).

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Read More:

Price & Time: Pro-Risk Markets At Key Juncture

US Dollar Reaches Technical Crossroads as FOMC Minutes Loom

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):





Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index






EUR/USD at Risk for Larger Recovery as ECB Buys Time, SSI FlipsUSDOLLAR Daily

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index appears bid ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes as the central bank is widely expected to halt its quantitative easing (QE) program at the October 29 meeting; will we see a more hawkish twist to forward-guidance?
  • May see a growing number of Fed officials fire warning shots against the recent strength in the dollar as it dampens the outlook for U.S. exports & inflation.
  • A break & close below the 11,000 pivot should open the door for a further decline; 10, 752 (38.2% expansion) to 10,759 (61.8% retracement) remains the first key region to watch.

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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