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EUR/USD Downside Targets in Focus- Gold Eyes Key $1,179 Support

EUR/USD Downside Targets in Focus- Gold Eyes Key $1,179 Support

2014-09-30 17:00:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

- EUR/USD Downside Targets in Focus Ahead of ECB Policy Meeting.

- Gold Eyes Key $1,179 Support as Bearish RSI Momentum Remains in Play.

- USDOLLAR Falls Back From Fresh Monthly-High Amid Mixed Data, Month-End Flows.

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EUR/USD

EUR/USD Downside Targets in Focus- Gold Eyes Key $1,179 Support
  • EUR/USD marks fresh monthly low of 1.2569 as Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (CPI) narrows to 0.3%, while core inflation unexpectedly slips to 0.7% from 0.9%.
  • Downside objectives remain favored ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) retains bearish momentum & pushes deeper into oversold territory.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows a 5.1% decline in open interest, but the ratio continues to favor a contrarian view as the ratio current sits at +1.38.

XAU/USD

EUR/USD Downside Targets in Focus- Gold Eyes Key $1,179 Support
  • Gold looks poised for a further decline as USD strength persists; failure to close back above $1,224 (78.6% retracement) raises risk for a run at $1,179.
  • Waiting for RSI to push back into oversold territory along with a break & close below $1,203 (1.618% expansion) for confirmation/conviction for another leg lower.
  • Looks as though Gold will continue to trade more as a commodity rather than a currency as the Federal Reserve moves away from its easing cycle & boosts interest rate expectations.

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Read More:

Price & Time: King Dollar

Next EUR/USD Leg Lower Begins; Trade Opportunities in EUR/AUD, EUR/GBP

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11051.55

11076.76

11010.77

0.13

126.07%

EUR/USD Downside Targets in Focus- Gold Eyes Key $1,179 SupportEUR/USD Downside Targets in Focus- Gold Eyes Key $1,179 Support

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index coming off of a fresh monthly high (11,076) amid mixed batch of data along with profit-taking at month, quarter-end.
  • Looks as though the USDOLLAR strength will get carried into October as the RSI remains the bullish momentum; would like to see a push higher into overbought territory to favor fresh highs.
  • Will keep a close eye on the ISM Manufacturing survey’s employment component as U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls are projected to increase 217K in September; next topside targets are around 11,120 (1.618% expansion) to 11,138 (61.8% expansion).

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Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

NAPM-Milwaukee (SEP)

13:00

61.00

63.18

S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (MoM) (JUL)

13:00

0.00%

-0.50%

S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) (JUL)

13:00

7.40%

6.75%

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index n.s.a. (JUL)

13:00

174.45

173.34

S&P/Case-Shiller US Home Price Index n.s.a. (JUL)

13:00

--

167.32

S&P/Case-Shiller US Home Price Index (YoY)

13:00

--

5.61%

Chicago Purchasing Manager (SEP)

13:45

62.0

60.5

Consumer Confidence (SEP)

14:00

92.5

86.

Fed's Jerome Powell Speaks on Government Debt

14:45

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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