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Euro Vulnerable to Slowing Inflation- Bearish NZD/USD Setup Favored

Euro Vulnerable to Slowing Inflation- Bearish NZD/USD Setup Favored

2014-09-29 16:30:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

- EUR/USD Vulnerable to Further Losses on Slowing Euro-Zone Inflation.

- NZD/USD Gets Slammed as Prime Minister John Key Favors 65.00 Exchange Rate, RBNZ Intervenes.

- USDOLLAR Topside Targets Remain Favored as Bullish RSI Momentum Gathers Pace.

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EUR/USD

Euro Vulnerable to Slowing Inflation- Bearish NZD/USD Setup Favored
  • EUR/USD may face a further decline ahead of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) October 2 meeting should the Euro-Zone’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) show a greater threat for deflation.
  • Bearish momentum in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) favors downside targets, especially as the oscillator dips back into oversold territory.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) continues to highlight net-short U.S. dollar positioning, with the EUR/USD ratio currently standing at +1.44.

NZD/USD

Euro Vulnerable to Slowing Inflation- Bearish NZD/USD Setup Favored
  • NZD/USD slips to a fresh monthly low of 0.7706 as Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announces it sold NZ$ 521M in August, the largest intervention since July 2007, while Prime Minister John Key says 0.8600 region is the ‘goldilocks’ exchange rate for the kiwi.
  • Bearish RSI momentum continues to favor the downside targets, especially as the oscillator pushes deeper into oversold territory.
  • Next key downside target comes in around 0.7470-80, the 78.6% retracement from the 2011 lows.

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Read More:

Price & Time: RBNZ A Seller

Technical Case for Weak EUR/USD Persists - Will Fundamentals Match?

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11022.73

11057.69

11017.13

0.01

77.11%

Euro Vulnerable to Slowing Inflation- Bearish NZD/USD Setup FavoredEuro Vulnerable to Slowing Inflation- Bearish NZD/USD Setup Favored

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index continues to mark fresh monthly high (11,057) ahead of the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report even as the U.S. economy is expected to add 218K jobs in September.
  • Will also keep a close eye on Average Hourly Earnings as wage growth is expected to pick up for the second consecutive month; 2.2% would mark the highest reading since October 2013.
  • Despite the dovish remarks from Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, who votes on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in 2015, we will continue to look for USDOLLAR strength as along as the RSI preserves the bullish momentum, with the next topside region coming in around 11,120 (1.618% expansion) to 11,138 (61.8% expansion).

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Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Personal Income (AUG)

12:30

0.3%

0.3%

Personal Spending (AUG)

12:30

0.4%

0.5%

Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (MoM) (AUG)

12:30

-0.1%

0.0%

Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (YoY) (AUG)

12:30

1.4%

1.5%

Fed's Evans Speaks at Economics Conference in Chicago

13:00

Pending Home Sales (MoM) (AUG)

14:00

-0.5%

-1.0%

Pending Home Sales (YoY) (AUG)

14:00

-1.4%

-4.1%

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (SEP)

14:30

10.5

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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