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GBP/USD Faces Growing Risk for Bullish Breakout as DailyFX SSI Flips

GBP/USD Faces Growing Risk for Bullish Breakout as DailyFX SSI Flips

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- GBP/USD Remains Capped by 1.6410-40 Ahead of BoE Carney’s Speech; SSI Flips to Negative.

- USD/CAD Continues to Carve Higher-Lows as Canada Retail Sales Disappoints.

- USDOLLAR Preserves Bullish Setup Ahead of U.S. Durable Goods, Final 2Q GDP Report

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GBP/USD Faces Growing Risk for Bullish Breakout as DailyFX SSI Flips
  • GBP/USD remains capped around 1.6410 (61.8% retracement) to 1.6440 (23.6% expansion) along with channel resistance; need a break & close above this region to favor bullish outlook.
  • Bank of England (BoE) Governor Mark Carney to speak on September 25 at 12:40 GMT; will the central bank head highlight a growing dissent within the committee?
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) highlights a material shift in retail position and has flipped for the first time since August, with the ratio current standing at -1.04.


GBP/USD Faces Growing Risk for Bullish Breakout as DailyFX SSI Flips
  • USD/CAD trims decline to 1.0985 as Canada Retail Sales unexpectedly contracts 0.1% in July, marking the first decline in 2014.
  • Inverse head-and-shoulders formation remains favored as long as USD/CAD holds above the August low (1.0809); string of higher-lows raises the risk for a higher-high.
  • Would like to see a topside break in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to see a resumption of the bullish momentum as the oscillator remains stuck in a wedge/triangle formation.

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Read More:

Price & Time: Minor USD Reprieve Or Something More?

EUR/USD Overlooks PMI Results Despite Manufacturing At 13-Months Low

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):





Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index






GBP/USD Faces Growing Risk for Bullish Breakout as DailyFX SSI FlipsGBP/USD Faces Growing Risk for Bullish Breakout as DailyFX SSI Flips

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index retains ascending channel, bullish RSI after paring the decline to 10,903; will stay supportive as long as the current structures remain in play.
  • Even though U.S. Durable Goods Orders are expected to contract 18.0% in August, a marked upward revision in the final 2Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may heighten the bullish sentiment surrounding the dollar as it boosts interest rate expectations..
  • Will continue to watch 10,989 (50.0% expansion) to 11,009 (July 2013 high), but fresh comments from Fed dove Charles Evans may drag on the dollar as the Chicago Fed President is a voting-member on the FOMC this year.

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Fed's James Bullard Speaks on U.S. Economy


House Price Index (MoM) (JUL)




Fed's Jerome Powell Speaks on U.S. Economy


Fed's Esther George Speaks on U.S. Economy


Markit Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (SEP P)




Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (SEP)




Fed's Narayan Kocherlakota Speaks on U.S. Economy


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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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