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AUD/USD RSI Flirts with Oversold Territory- Downside Targets Favored

AUD/USD RSI Flirts with Oversold Territory- Downside Targets Favored

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- AUD/USD Fails to Push Above Former Support; H&S Pattern Takes Shape

- NZD/USD Downside Targets Remain Favored as RBNZ Retains Verbal Intervention

- USDOLLAR Holds Previous Day’s Range Ahead of Retail Sales, U. of Michigan Confidence

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AUD/USD

AUD/USD RSI Flirts with Oversold Territory- Downside Targets Favored
  • Fails to push above former support around 0.9200-10 despite the 121.0K rise in Australia Employment, with the jobless rate slipping to 6.1% from 6.3%.
  • Raises risk for head-and-shoulders reversal pattern as Relative Strength Index (RSI) retains bearish momentum; next downside objective comes in around 0.9080 (50.0% retracement) to 0.9070 (38.2% retracement).
  • The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) has narrowed, but continues to favor a bearish outlook for AUD/USD retail crowd remains net-long, with the ratio currently standing at +1.80.

NZD/USD

AUD/USD RSI Flirts with Oversold Territory- Downside Targets Favored
  • NZD/USD looks poised to give back the rebound from February (0.8050) as it closes below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement (82.10-20), while RSI pushes into oversold territory.
  • With the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) retaining the verbal intervention on the New Zealand dollar, will continue to use the downward trending channel for near-term guidance.
  • Next downside region to watch comes in around 0.8100 pivot to 0.8120 (61.8% retracement).

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Read More:

Price & Time: The AUD/USD Cold Shoulder

AUDUSD Scalps Target Head and Shoulders Break- Bearish Sub 9236

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10854.94

10859.53

10828.98

0.07

77.00%

AUD/USD RSI Flirts with Oversold Territory- Downside Targets FavoredAUD/USD RSI Flirts with Oversold Territory- Downside Targets Favored

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index holds previous day’s range; may see a more meaningful run at August 2013 high (10,897) as U.S. Retail Sales expected to rise 0.6% in August, U. of Michigan Confidence projected to increase to 83.3 in September from 82.5 the month prior.
  • Will continue to favor USDOLLAR strength as long as RSI preserves the bullish trendline, but failure to close above 10,869 (78.6% retracement) may highlight a near-term topping process.
  • Looks as though retail crowd will stay net-short USD ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) interest rate decision as the DailyFX SSI retains the recent trends.

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Initial Jobless Claims (SEP 6)

12:30

300K

315K

Continuing Claims (AUG 30)

12:30

2490K

2487K

Monthly Budget Statement (AUG)

18:00

-$132.5B

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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