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GBP Vulnerable to Dovish BoE- Will RBNZ Remove Verbal Intervention?

GBP Vulnerable to Dovish BoE- Will RBNZ Remove Verbal Intervention?

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- GBP/USD Vulnerable to Further Losses as BoE Testifies on Inflation Report

- NZD/USD Needs More Hawkish RBNZ More Meaningful Recovery

- USDOLLAR Risks Larger Correction as RSI Divergence Takes Shape

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GBP/USD

GBP Vulnerable to Dovish BoE- Will RBNZ Remove Verbal Intervention?
  • GBP/USD holding near-term support around 1.6280-1.6300, but remains at risk for a further decline as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds & pushes deeper into oversold territory.
  • With Bank of England (BoE) scheduled to testify on August Inflation report will watch for more detailed surrounding the interest rate outlook; will BoE Minutes, which are due out on September 17, show greater dissent?
  • The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-long GBP/USD, with the ratio currently standing at +2.02.

NZD/USD

GBP Vulnerable to Dovish BoE- Will RBNZ Remove Verbal Intervention?
  • Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) widely expected to hold rates at 2.50% at the September 10 meeting; Governor Graeme Wheeler to hold press conference at 21:05 GMT.
  • May see NZD/USD retain bearish trend/momentum on more neutral tone; will Wheeler continue to jawbone the New Zealand dollar?.
  • Next downside region of interest comes in around 0.8210 (78.6% retracement) to 0.8240 (78.6% expansion).

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Read More:

US Dollar Profit Taking Ensues on Surprise August NFPs Miss

NZD/USD Keeps Traders In Suspense Amid Void Of Reversal Candlesticks

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10736.43

10768.29

10716.67

-0.09

152.53%

GBP Vulnerable to Dovish BoE- Will RBNZ Remove Verbal Intervention?GBP Vulnerable to Dovish BoE- Will RBNZ Remove Verbal Intervention?

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index fails to hold the fresh yearly high (10,768) as Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) disappoints; string of failed closes above 10,753 (23.6% expansion) to 10,759 (61.8% retracement) may highlight greater risk for larger correction.
  • Bearish divergence continues to take shape on the RSI; still need to see a break of trendline support to favor downside targets.
  • 10,657 (61.8% expansion) to 10,661 (23.6% retracement) will be first region to watch once a larger correction takes shape.

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Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Change in Non-farm Payrolls (AUG)

12:30

230K

142K

Unemployment Rate (AUG)

12:30

6.1%

6.1%

Labor Force Participation Rate (AUG)

12:30

--

62.8%

Change in Private Payrolls (AUG)

12:30

214K

134K

Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (AUG)

12:30

18K

0K

Change in Household Employment (AUG)

12:30

238

16

Two-Month Payroll Net Revision (AUG)

12:30

--

-28K

Underemployment Rate (AUG)

12:30

--

12.0%

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (AUG)

12:30

0.2%

0.2%

Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (AUG)

12:30

2.1%

2.1%

Average Weekly Hours (AUG)

12:30

34.5

34.5%

Fed's Eric Rosengren Speaks on U.S. Economy

19:45

Fed's Charles Plosser Speaks on U.S. Economy

14:15

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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