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AUD/USD Range in Focus Despite Bullish Outside-Day

AUD/USD Range in Focus Despite Bullish Outside-Day

2014-09-03 16:15:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

- AUD/USD Range in Focus Amid Weakening Trade, Slowing Retail Sales

- Gold Coming Up Against Channel Support; Bearish Outlook Remains Favored

- USDOLLAR Stalls Ahead of February High (10,724); Bearish RSI Divergence Taking Shape?

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AUD/USD

AUD/USD Range in Focus Despite Bullish Outside-Day
  • AUD/USD may hold below 0.9350 (50.0% retracement) ahead of Australia Trade Balance, Retail Sales amid the string of failed attempts to close above the region.
  • May see a move back towards range support (0.9260-80) as trade deficit is expected to widen while private sector consumption slows.
  • The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) has come off of recent highs but retail crowd remains net-long AUD/USD as the ratio stands at +1.41.

XAU/USD

AUD/USD Range in Focus Despite Bullish Outside-Day
  • Gold may see a short-term rebound as it comes up against channel support & $1,260 (61.8% retracement of yearly range).
  • Still favor ‘selling bounces’ as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) preserves the bearish momentum carried over from July.
  • Key downside region to watch comes in around $1,231 (78.6% retracement) to $1,234 (78.6% retracement) amid the failed test in June.

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USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10686.9

10714.05

10679.33

-0.15

121.19%

AUD/USD Range in Focus Despite Bullish Outside-DayAUD/USD Range in Focus Despite Bullish Outside-Day

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index fails to test the February high (10,724); vulnerable to a larger correction as there appears to be a bearish RSI divergence.
  • Will look for a larger decline one RSI comes off of overbought territory & breaks the upward trend carried over from July.
  • Former resistance around 10,555 (50.0% retracement) to 10,561 (100% expansion) remains the key level of interest ahead of the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report & the Fed’s September 17 policy meeting.

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Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

MBA Mortgage Applications (AUG 29)

11:00

0.2%

ISM New York (AUG)

13:45

57.1

Factory Orders (JUL)

14:00

11.0%

10.5%

Federal Reserve Publishes Beige Book

18:00

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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