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GBP/USD Risks Larger Rebound as RSI Threatens Bearish Momentum

GBP/USD Risks Larger Rebound as RSI Threatens Bearish Momentum

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- Larger GBP/USD Rebound Favored on Bullish RSI Break

- AUD/USD Clears 0.93330-40 Resistance Ahead of RBA Policy Meeting

- USDOLLAR RSI Falls Back From Overbought, Threatens Bullish Momentum

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GBP/USD

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  • Relative Strength Index (RSI) appears to be breaking out of bearish trend as GBP/USD climbs to a fresh weekly high of 1.6604.
  • Need a close above 1.6600-10 (61.8% retracement) for confirmation/conviction for a larger rebound.
  • Nevertheless, the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) continues to show that retail crowd remains net-long on GBP/USD as the ratio stands at +1.57.

AUD/USD

GBP/USD Risks Larger Rebound as RSI Threatens Bearish Momentum
  • Will look at the broader AUD/USD range as the pair climbs back above former support around 0.9330-40 as the RSI appears to be breaking out of the bearish momentum.
  • Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to keep the benchmark interest rate at 2.50%; will Governor Glenn Stevens toughen the verbal intervention.
  • Next key topside target comes in around 0.9380 (38.2% retracement) to 0.9390 (38.2% retracement) should we see a close above former support.

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Read More:

Price & Time: In Search of A Low in the Euro Next Week

Sharp CAD Reversal Negates USD/CAD Bull Flag, Stuns EUR/CAD, GBP/CAD

USDOLLAR

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10633.15

10661.43

10630.23

-0.24

109.02%

GBP/USD Risks Larger Rebound as RSI Threatens Bearish MomentumGBP/USD Risks Larger Rebound as RSI Threatens Bearish Momentum

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

  • Seems like the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index has marked a near-term top at former support; bearish break on RSI to provide confirmation/conviction for larger decline as the oscillator comes off of resistance.
  • Still want to see the USDOLLAR fill the weekly opening gap on a close-basis; will look for a higher-low given recent series.
  • Former resistance around 10,555 (50.0% retracement) to 10,561 (100% expansion) in focus amid the risk for a more meaningful USDOLLAR correction.

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Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

MBA Mortgage Applications (AUG 22)

13:00

--

2.8%

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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