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AUD/USD Fails to Clear Former Support; Risks Lower-High on Dovish RBA

AUD/USD Fails to Clear Former Support; Risks Lower-High on Dovish RBA

2014-08-18 16:00:00
David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- GBP/USD Gaps Higher Ahead of U.K. CPI on Hawkish Carney Comments

- AUD/USD Remains Capped by Former Support Ahead of RBA Event Risk

- USDOLLAR Fails to Preserve Bullish RSI Momentum; U.S. Inflation to Slow





Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index







  • Gaps higher as Bank of England (BoE) Governor Mark Carney shows greater willingness to normalize monetary policy despite weaker-than-expected U.K. wage growth.
  • U.K. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to slow to an annualized 1.8% from 1.9% in July; may help to close the gap from the Sunday open should it drag on interest rate expectations.
  • The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) ratio for GBP/USD has narrowed following the decline from earlier this month, but the retail crowd remains net long as it stands at +1.76.


  • Failure to push back above former support (0.9330-40) raises the risk for a near-term topping process in the AUD/USD; lower-high in place?
  • Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Minutes & Governor Glenn Stevens’ semi-annual testimony may generate a more bearish outlook for the AUD/USD as the central bank cuts its growth/inflation forecast.
  • Despite the RBA’s pledge for ‘interest rate stability,’ market participants appear to be leaning more towards a rate cut rather than a rate hike from RBA as Credit Suisse Overnight Index Swaps (OIS) shows 12-month expectations falling 11bp.

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AUD/USD Fails to Clear Former Support; Risks Lower-High on Dovish RBA

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Read More:

Price & Time: Will There Be A Euro Squeeze?

5 Reasons EUR/USD is Coiling - GBP/USD Waits for UK, US CPIs on Tues


AUD/USD Fails to Clear Former Support; Risks Lower-High on Dovish RBA

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

  • The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index retains the range from the previous week, but failure to preserve the bullish momentum in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) raises the risk for a near-term topping process.
  • Will watch 10,508-509 along with trendline support as the greenback remains vulnerable for a larger pullback.
  • U.S. CPI to slow to 2.0% from 2.1% in June; weaker-than-expected inflation print may weaken interest rate expectations as Fed looks to halt quantitative easing (QE) in October.
  • Interim Resistance: 10,590 Pivot to 10,604 (38.2% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 10,440 (78.6% retracement) to 10,450 Pivot

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NAHB Housing Market Index (AUG)




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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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