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AUD/USD Fails to Clear Former Support- USD/CAD Higher-Low in Place?

AUD/USD Fails to Clear Former Support- USD/CAD Higher-Low in Place?

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- AUD/USD Fails to Push Above Former Support Ahead of RBA Minutes, Testimony

- USD/CAD Slips to Fresh Monthly Low as Canada Employment Tops Forecast

- USDOLLAR Holds Above Former Resistance Ahead of Fed Symposium

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10564.17

10568.85

10553.66

0.00

53.30%

AUD/USD:

  • Fails to clear former support around 0.9330-40 ahead of Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Minutes & Governor Glenn Stevens’ semi-annual testimony.
  • With the recent series of lower-highs, the bearish momentum in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) favors downside targets.
  • The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-long on AUD/USD as the ratio currently stands at +1.31.

USD/CAD:

  • USD/CAD slips to a fresh weekly low of 1.0859 as Canada Employment climbs 41.7K in July with the jobless rate unexpectedly slipping to 7.0% from 7.1% the month prior.
  • Even though the bearish RSI momentum remains in focus, we’re sitting at trendline support along with a clutter of key Fibonacci levels around 1.0850-70; higher-low in place?
  • Bank of Canada (BoC) policy outlook may continue to dampen the appeal of the Canadian dollar as Governor Stephen Poloz remains reluctant to further normalize monetary policy.

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AUD/USD Fails to Clear Former Support- USD/CAD Higher-Low in Place?

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates Across the Majors!

Read More:

Consolidation or Topping Pattern in AUD/NZD?

USDOLLAR Clears Resistance but for How Long?

USDOLLAR Daily

AUD/USD Fails to Clear Former Support- USD/CAD Higher-Low in Place?

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

  • Despite the mixed batch of U.S. data, the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index continues to trade above former resistance (10,555-561) ahead of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes & Fed Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
  • Still waiting for bearish RSI break to look for a larger correction as there appears to be a growing divergence with price.
  • Will also keep a close eye on the 200-Day SMA (10,545); break & close below to provide further confirmation/conviction for a more meaningful pullback.
  • Interim Resistance: 10,590 Pivot to 10,604 (38.2% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 10,440 (78.6% retracement) to 10,450 Pivot

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Empire Manufacturing (AUG)

12:30

20.00

14.69

Producer Price Index (MoM) (JUL)

12:30

0.1%

0.1%

Producer Price Index (YoY) (JUL)

12:30

1.7%

1.7%

Producer Price Index ex Food and Energy (MoM) (JUL)

12:30

0.2%

0.2%

Producer Price Index ex Food and Energy (YoY) (JUL)

12:30

1.6%

1.6%

Net Long-Term TIC Flows (JUN)

13:00

Total Net TIC Flows (JUN)

13:00

Industrial Production (MoM) (JUL)

13:15

0.3%

0.4%

Capacity Utilization (JUL)

13:15

79.2%

79.2%

Manufacturing Production (SIC) (JUL)

13:15

0.4%

1.0%

U. of Michigan Confidence (AUG P)

13:55

82.5

79.2

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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