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EUR/USD Continues to Carve Lower-Highs; EUR/NZD Top in Place?

EUR/USD Continues to Carve Lower-Highs; EUR/NZD Top in Place?

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- GBP/USD Weighed by Weak Wage Growth, Less-Hawkish BoE

- NZD/USD Holds Above 0.8400 Support Ahead of 2Q Retail Sales

- USDOLLAR Falls Back From Fresh Monthly High as Retain Sales Disappoints

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10561.73

10569.91

10541.99

0.09

98.51%

GBP/USD:

  • Slips to fresh monthly low of 1.6698 as U.K. Average Weekly Earnings contracts for first time since 2009 while Bank of England (BoE) sees first rate hike in February 2015.
  • Even though the BoE remains on course to normalize monetary policy, seems as though the central bank is in no rush to raise the benchmark interest rate as they cut the wage growth forecast & highlights greater uncertainty surrounding the fundamental outlook..
  • Nevertheless, DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-long on GBP/USD, with the ratio standing at +2.18.

NZD/USD:

  • Despite the oversold reading in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), will retain a constructive view for NZD/USD as long as it holds above the June low (0.8401).
  • New Zealand 2Q Retail Sales may generate a larger rebound as household spending is expected to increased 1.0% versus 0.7% during the first three-months of 2014.
  • According to Credit Suisse Overnight Index Swaps, market participants still see the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raising borrowing costs by at least 40bp over the next 12-months.

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EUR/USD Continues to Carve Lower-Highs; EUR/NZD Top in Place?

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Read More:

Price & Time: Was that "the Dip"?

Time to Sell GBP: BoE’s QIR Spurs Key Reversals on Big Volume

USDOLLAR Daily

EUR/USD Continues to Carve Lower-Highs; EUR/NZD Top in Place?

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index struggling to hold the fresh monthly high (10,569) as U.S. Advance Retail Sales unexpectedly holds flat in July.
  • Relative Strength Index (RSI) bullish momentum remains in focus; downside break to provide conviction/confirmation of a near-term top.
  • Need close above 10,561 (100% expansion) to favor a move into 10,590.
  • Interim Resistance: 10,590 (50.0% retracement) to 10,604 (38.2% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 10,440 (78.6% retracement) to 10,450 Pivot

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Advance Retail Sales (MoM) (JUL)

12:30

0.2%

0.0%

Advance Retail Sales ex Auto (MoM) (JUL)

12:30

0.4%

0.1%

Advance Retail Sales ex Auto and Gas (MoM) (JUL)

12:30

0.4%

0.1%

Retail Sales Control Group (JUL)

12:30

0.4%

0.1%

Fed’s Dudley Speaks on U.S. Economy

13:05

Fed’s Rosengren Speaks on U.S. Economy

13:20

Business Inventories (JUN)

14:00

0.4%

0.4%

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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