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EUR/USD Risks Further Losses as Growth Outlook Deteriorates

EUR/USD Risks Further Losses as Growth Outlook Deteriorates

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- EUR/USD Risks Fresh Monthly Lows as Growth Outlook Deteriorates

- GBP/USD Holds Above June Low (1.6697) Ahead of BoE Inflation Report

- USDOLLAR Continues to Test Near-Term Resistance; Fed Doves on Tap





Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index








  • Will retain a constructive outlook for GBP/USD as long as it holds above the June low (1.6697); U.K. Jobless Claims projected to contract another 30.0K in July.
  • However, subdued wage growth may undermine the near-term outlook for the British Pound as it drags on interest rate expectations.
  • Nevertheless, the Bank of England (BoE) Inflation report may have a larger impact on the GBP/USD as market participants look for a rate hike sooner rather than later; need greater willingness from BoE to start normalizing monetary policy in 2014.

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EUR/USD Risks Further Losses as Growth Outlook Deteriorates

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Waiting on EUR/USD, USD/CHF Flags to Break

Price & Time: Today’s Close in the Euro Should Prove Important


EUR/USD Risks Further Losses as Growth Outlook Deteriorates

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index clears near-term resistance around 10,555-561; raises risk for a continuation of fresh monthly highs.
  • Bullish momentum in Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in focus as oscillator tries to push back into overbought territory.
  • Next hurdle comes in around 10,590; need a break & close above the key region to see a further retracement of the decline from earlier this year.
  • Interim Resistance: 10,590 (50.0% retracement) to 10,604 (38.2% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 10,440 (78.6% retracement) to 10,450 Pivot





NFIB Small Business Optimism (JUL)




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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

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