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AUD/USD 0.9200 Support in View; USDOLLAR Vulnerable to Fed Doves

AUD/USD 0.9200 Support in View; USDOLLAR Vulnerable to Fed Doves

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- AUD/USD Eyes 0.9200 Support Ahead of Australia, China Data

- USD/CAD Risks Larger Correction Amid Bearish RSI Break

- USDOLLAR Continues to Test Near-Term Resistance; Fed Doves on Tap

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10552.23

10553.31

10544.32

0.07

32.35%

AUD/USD:

  • The bearish trend in price & the Relative Strength Index (RSI) favors downside targets; 0.9200 handle remains key support.
  • Need to closely watch interest rate expectations as Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lowers growth, inflation forecast.
  • Nevertheless, DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-long on AUD/USD in August, with the ratio standing at +1.79.

USD/CAD:

  • Risks larger correction as USD/CAD appears to be carving near-term top ahead of 1.1000; waiting for a bearish RSI break to materialize for confirmation & conviction.
  • Will look for longer-term opportunities to ‘buy dips’ in USD/CAD as pair retains bullish trend from 2013; Bank of Canada (BoC) to preserve relatively dovish tone for monetary policy.
  • Seems as though BoC Governor Stephen Poloz is in no rush to normalize; does not want to get too ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

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AUD/USD 0.9200 Support in View; USDOLLAR Vulnerable to Fed Doves

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Read More:

USDJPY Long Term Channel in Focus for Rest of August

US Dollar Coils for Next Leg - Setups in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

USDOLLAR Daily

AUD/USD 0.9200 Support in View; USDOLLAR Vulnerable to Fed Doves

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index at risk for a more meaningful pullback as it carves near-term top around 10,555-561.
  • Failure to maintain bullish RSI momentum to provide conviction/confirmation for larger correction; will look for higher-low as it breaks out of the downward trend from earlier this year.
  • William Dudley & Eric Rosengren are scheduled to speak ahead of the Fed Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
  • Interim Resistance: 10,555 (50.0% retracement) to 10,561 (100% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 10,440 (78.6% retracement) to 10,450 Pivot

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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