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EUR/USD Marks Key Low Ahead of ECB; AUD/USD Capped by Former Support

EUR/USD Marks Key Low Ahead of ECB; AUD/USD Capped by Former Support

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- EUR/USD Rebounds Ahead of ECB Meeting; Bearish RSI Momentum in Focus

- Watching Former Support on AUD/USD for Resistance; More Verbal Intervention from RBA?

- USDOLLAR Fails to Test April High (10,572) as Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Disappoint

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10531.49

10558.6

10518.03

-0.09

149.16%

EUR/USD:

  • Looks like EUR/USD will face a larger rebound ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting as a the Relative Strength Index (RSI) bounces back from oversold territory.
  • Break of near-term bearish RSI momentum may drive the EUR/USD back towards former support around 1.3500-20.
  • Nevertheless, DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-long on EUR/USD, with the ratio standing at +1.61, which continues to favor a long-term bearish outlook.

AUD/USD:

  • Will watch former support around 0.9330-40 for new resistance ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy meeting; rates expected to stay on hold at 2.50%.
  • Bearish RSI momentum continues to favor approach to ‘sell bounces’ as the bigger range comes into play; key support stands at 0.9200-10.
  • RBA statement may have most meaningful impact on AUD/USD as Governor Glenn Stevens toughens verbal intervention on the Australian dollar.

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EUR/USD Marks Key Low Ahead of ECB; AUD/USD Capped by Former Support

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Read More:

US Dollar Eases Back as July NFPs Disappoint High Expectations

Gold the Commodity or Gold the Currency?

USDOLLAR Daily

EUR/USD Marks Key Low Ahead of ECB; AUD/USD Capped by Former Support

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index fails to test April high (10,572) as Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) climbs 209K, jobless rate unexpectedly upticks to 6.2% from 6.1%.
  • Will continue to watch the bullish RSI momentum, but break back below 70 may generate larger pullback.
  • Watching former resistance region around 10,440-50 for new support as the USDOLLAR breaks out of bearish trend.
  • Interim Resistance: 10,555 (50.0% retracement) to 10,561 (100% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 10,440 (78.6% retracement) to 10,450 Pivot

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Change in Non-Farm Payrolls (JUL)

12:30

230K

209K

Unemployment Rate (JUL)

12:30

6.1%

6.2%

Labor Force Participation Rate (JUL)

12:30

62.9%

Change in Private Payrolls (JUL)

12:30

227K

198K

Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (JUL)

12:30

15K

28K

Underemployment Rate (JUL)

12:30

12.2%

Change in Household Employment (JUL)

12:30

131

Two-Month Payroll Net Revision (JUL)

12:30

15K

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (JUL)

12:30

0.2%

0.0%

Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (JUL)

12:30

2.2%

2.0%

Average Weekly Hours (JUL)

12:30

34.5

34.5

Personal Income (JUN)

12:30

0.4%

0.4%

Personal Spending (JUN)

12:30

0.4%

0.4%

Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (MoM) (JUN)

12:30

0.2%

0.2%

Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (YoY) (JUN)

12:30

1.7%

1.6%

Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (MoM) (JUN)

12:30

0.1%

0.1%

Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY) (JUN)

12:30

1.4%

1.5%

Markit Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JUL F)

13:45

56.5

55.8

U. of Michigan Confidence (JUL F)

13:55

81.8

81.8

ISM Manufacturing (JUL)

14:00

56.0

57.1

ISM Prices Paid (JUL)

14:00

58.0

59.5

Construction Spending (MoM) (JUN)

14:00

0.5%

-1.8%

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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