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USD/JPY July Opening Range in Focus Ahead of 2Q GDP, FOMC Meeting

USD/JPY July Opening Range in Focus Ahead of 2Q GDP, FOMC Meeting

2014-07-29 16:00:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

- USD/JPY Struggles to Clear 102.00; Bearish RSI Momentum Remains in Play

- Gold Tests Former Support; Still Treated as Commodity Rather Than Currency

- USDOLLAR Coming Up Against Trendline Resistance Ahead of 2Q GDP, FOMC

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10492.83

10495.01

10467.13

0.22

120.32%

USD/JPY:

  • Continues to threaten near-term resistance (101.80-102.00); JPY pairs in focus as EU prepares more sanctions on Russia.
  • With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) retaining the bearish trend carried over from the previous year, USD/JPY remains at risk for a lower-high as long as it holds below the July high (102.25).
  • Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Koji Ishida sees 2% inflation target being achieved in the middle of the projected period; looks as though we will hear more of the same from Governor Haruhiko Kuroda at the August 8 policy meeting.

Gold:

  • Downside targets remain favored as Gold carves lower-high in July & fails to retain bullish RSI momentum.
  • Favor ‘selling bounces’ in bullion as it struggles to push back above former support around 1306-1310; Gold still being treated as a commodity rather than an alternative currency as it mimics the price action in Silver.
  • Next key downside objective comes in around 1277, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the July 2013 advance.

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USD/JPY July Opening Range in Focus Ahead of 2Q GDP, FOMC Meeting

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Price & Time: What Is Going On With Gold?

EUR/USD Bearish Sub-1.3475; EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY May Have Other Ideas

USDOLLAR Daily

USD/JPY July Opening Range in Focus Ahead of 2Q GDP, FOMC Meeting

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

  • Another close above the 10,470 pivot to generate larger correction in the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index; next topside target comes in around 10,508-509.
  • Will watch channel resistance from here, but the bullish RSI momentum suggests a further advance for the greenback.
  • U.S. 2Q GDP & Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting may set the tone for August trade given recent strength in Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) figures.
  • Interim Resistance: 10,508 (61.8% retracement) to 10,524 (38.2% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 10,354 (Oct. low) to 10,375 (50.0& retracement)

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 s.a. (MoM) (MAY)

13:00

0.30%

-0.31%

S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) (MAY)

13:00

9.90%

9.34%

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (MAY)

13:00

171.25

170.64

Consumer Confidence (JUL)

14:00

85.4

90.9

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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