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EUR/USD Risks Further Losses Ahead of ECB Meeting; CPI in Focus

EUR/USD Risks Further Losses Ahead of ECB Meeting; CPI in Focus

2014-07-25 16:25:00
David Song, Strategist
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Talking Points:

- EUR/USD Continues to Search for Support as Private-Lending Contracts for 26 Months

- GBP/USD Threatens Key Support Zone Amid Lackluster 2Q U.K. GDP Report

- USDOLLAR to Face Larger Correction on Close Above 10,470

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10474.11

10477.09

10455.63

0.14

85.19%

EUR/USD:

  • EUR/USD falls to a fresh monthly, yearly low of 1.3426 as the M3 Money Supply report showed private-sector lending contract for 26 consecutive months; may put increased pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to implement more non-standard measures.
  • Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains the key event risk for the single currency next week as the headline reading for inflation is expected to hold steady at an annualized 0.5.%.
  • Will be looking for details at the next ECB meeting on August 7; more of the same from President Mario Draghi may help to limit the decline in the EUR/USD.

GBP/USD:

  • GBP/USD slipped to a fresh monthly low of 1.6959 even as 2Q U.K. GDP climbed 0.8%; market reaction suggests markets were looking for a stronger print.
  • Our attention now turns to the Bank of England’s (BoE) Inflation report due out on August 13 as market participants anticipate a more hawkish tone for monetary policy.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) continues to cast bullish outlook for GBP/USD as ratio pushes deeper into negative territory, currently standing at -1.61.

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EUR/USD Risks Further Losses Ahead of ECB Meeting; CPI in Focus

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Read More:

USD/JPY Gaining Momentum Off Range Lows

Weekly Price & Time: EUR/USD Cracking Important Support

USDOLLAR Daily

EUR/USD Risks Further Losses Ahead of ECB Meeting; CPI in Focus

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index fails to benefit from the 0.7% rise in U.S. Durable Goods Orders; still looking for a lower-high as descending channel remains in play.
  • A close below the 10,470 pivot could warn of a topping process, but still need a downside break in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for conviction/confirmation.
  • Dollar to face major event risk (U.S. 2Q GDP, FOMC meeting & Non-Farm Payrolls) going into August; will also need to keep a close eye on month-end flows.
  • Interim Resistance: 10,508 (61.8% retracement) to 10,524 (38.2% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 10,354 (Oct. low) to 10,375 (50.0& retracement)

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Durable Goods Orders (JUN)

12:30

0.5%

0.7%

Durables ex Transportation (JUN)

12:30

0.5%

0.8%

Non-Defense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircrafts (JUN)

12:30

0.5%

1.4%

Non-Defense Capital Goods Shipments ex Aircrafts (JUN)

12:30

1.3%

-1.0%

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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