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Looking for Lower-High in USD/JPY as Pair Pushes Into Resistance

Looking for Lower-High in USD/JPY as Pair Pushes Into Resistance

2014-07-24 15:25:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

- GBP/USD Searches for Support Ahead of U.K. 2Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

- USD/JPY Comes Up Against Resistance Ahead of Japan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI)

- USDOLLAR Turns Around Ahead of 10,470 Pivot as New Home Sales Disappoint

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10460.18

10465.74

10435.82

0.24

115.80%

GBP/USD:

  • Weakens to a fresh monthly low as U.K. Retail Sales increases 0.1% versus 0.3% expected; 2Q GDP expected to expand another 0.8%.
  • May need strong growth figures for GBP/USD to retain the bullish trend from earlier this year; 1.6940-60 remains the key region of interest as it stands above trendline support.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) continues to narrow but remains in negative territory as ratio current stands at -1.49.

USD/JPY:

  • Will continue to look for resistance around former support region, which comes in at 101.80-102.00.
  • Remains at risk for a further decline as the USD/JPY continues to carve series of lower-highs in July.
  • Japan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to narrow to an annualized pace of 3.5% from 3.7% in June, but it looks as though the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will retain its current approach for monetary policy as the central bank remains upbeat on the real econmy.

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Looking for Lower-High in USD/JPY as Pair Pushes Into Resistance

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USDOLLAR Daily

Looking for Lower-High in USD/JPY as Pair Pushes Into Resistance

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index correction stalls ahead of 10,470 as U.S. New Home Sales slip 8.1% in June amid forecasts for a 5.8% decline.
  • Remains at risk of carving a lower-high ahead of the Fed’s July 30 meeting as Chair Janet Yellen retains a dovish tone for monetary policy; will continue to favor the downward trending channel from earlier this year.
  • Will continue to look for a bearish break in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to have greater conviction/confirmation of a lower-high.
  • Interim Resistance: 10,508 (61.8% retracement) to 10,524 (38.2% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 10,354 (Oct. low) to 10,375 (50.0& retracement)

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Initial Jobless Claims (JUL 19)

12:30

307K

284K

Continuing Claims (JUL 12)

12:30

2510K

2500K

Markit Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JUL P)

13:45

57.5

56.3

New Home Sales (JUN)

14:00

475K

406K

New Home Sales (MoM) (JUN)

14:00

-5.8%

-8.1%

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity (JUL)

15:00

6

9

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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