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AUD/USD Eyes Range Support Ahead of 2Q CPI- NZD Opening Gap in Focus

AUD/USD Eyes Range Support Ahead of 2Q CPI- NZD Opening Gap in Focus

2014-07-21 15:40:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

- AUD/USD Range in Focus Ahead of RBA Governor Stevens, 2Q Inflation Report

- NZD/USD Gaps Higher Ahead of Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Meeting

- USDOLLAR Continues to Threaten 10,440 Ahead of U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10440.58

10441.6

10421.39

0.10

78.92%

AUD/USD:

  • Looks poised to retain the sideways price action given the string of failed attempts to close above the 0.9400 handle; key support remains around the 0.9330-40 region;
  • Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Glenn Stevens scheduled to speak at 23:00 ET; more verbal intervention on tap?
  • Australia 2Q Consumer Price Index (CPI) may limit the downside risk for AUD/USD as headline reading for inflation is expected to uptick to an annualized 3.0% from 2.9% during the first three-months of 2014.

NZD/USD:

  • Gaps higher ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) interest rate decision; widely expected to deliver another 25np rate hike which would take the cash rate to 3.50%.
  • Language accompanying the interest rate decision may play a larger role in driving the market reaction following New Zealand’s dismal 2Q CPI report.
  • According to Credit Suisse Overnight Index Swaps (OIS), market now see just 50bp worth of rate hikes over the next 12-months.

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AUD/USD Eyes Range Support Ahead of 2Q CPI- NZD Opening Gap in Focus

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Read More:

Price & Time: USD/JPY Continues to Disappoint

GBP/USD Needs Hawkish BoE Minutes, Upbeat 2Q GDP for Fresh Highs

USDOLLAR Daily

AUD/USD Eyes Range Support Ahead of 2Q CPI- NZD Opening Gap in Focus

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index remains at risk of a topping process given the failed attempts to close above 10,440 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement).
  • Following the Humphrey-Hawkins Testimony, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) may undermine the Fed’s dovish tone for monetary policy as the headline reading for inflation is expected to hold at the fastest pace since October 2011.
  • Will continue to look for a lower-high as the USDOLLA retains the descending channel from earlier this year.
  • Interim Resistance: 10,508 (61.8% retracement) to 10,524 (38.2% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 10,354 (Oct. low) to 10,375 (50.0& retracement)

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Chicago Fed National Activity Index (JUN)

12:30

0.18

0.12

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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