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CAD Crosses in Focus Following Strong CPI- USD in Topping Process?

CAD Crosses in Focus Following Strong CPI- USD in Topping Process?

2014-07-18 15:10:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

- GBP/USD Outlook Hinges on BoE Minutes, U.K. 2Q GDP

- USD/CAD Hits Fresh Weekly Low (1.0707) on Canada CPI; Lower-High in Place?

- USDOLLAR Failure to Close Above 10,440 to Highlight Topping Process

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10441.33

10452.01

10426.75

0.05

96.64%

GBP/USD:

USD/CAD:

  • The USD/CAD faces an increased risk of carving a lower-high just below the 1.0800 handle as Canada Consumer Price Index (CPI) unexpectedly quickens to an annualized 2.4% in June from 2.3% the month prior.
  • Despite the break of the bullish momentum in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the oscillator appears to be carving a lower-high as well.
  • Even though Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Stephen Poloz talks down the risk for inflation, the ongoing shift in the policy outlook may continue to drive the USD/CAD lower as the central bank scales back its willingness to deliver another rate cut.

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CAD Crosses in Focus Following Strong CPI- USD in Topping Process?

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USDOLLAR Daily

CAD Crosses in Focus Following Strong CPI- USD in Topping Process?

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index coming back from a fresh weekly high of 10,452 as U. of Michigan Confidence survey unexpectedly weakens to 81.3 from 82.5 in June.
  • Another failed attempt to close above 10,440 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) may continue to highlight a near-term topping process for the USDOLLAR.
  • U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) & Durable Goods Orders highlight the biggest event risk for the greenback.
  • Interim Resistance: 10,508 (61.8% retracement) to 10,524 (38.2% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 10,354 (Oct. low) to 10,375 (50.0& retracement)

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

U. of Michigan Confidence (JUL P)

13:55

83.0

81.3

Leading Indicators (JUN)

14:00

0.5%

0.3%

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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