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Bearish USD Sentiment Remains Favored as Fed Chair Yellen Preserves Dovish Tone

Bearish USD Sentiment Remains Favored as Fed Chair Yellen Preserves Dovish Tone

2014-07-15 15:00:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Threatens Bearish Setup; Yellen Testimony in Focus

- GBP/USD Benefits From U.K. CPI; Higher-Low in Place?

- NZD/USD to Eye Fresh Record Highs on Strong 2Q CPI, China 2Q GDP

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10430.51

10432.41

10400.5

0.12

114.10%

USDOLLAR (Ticker: USDollar):

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index struggling to hold gains as Fed Chair Janet Yellen retains a dovish tone for monetary policy at the Humphrey-Hawkins Testimony.
  • Seems Chair Yellen remains in no rush to normalize monetary policy as the central bank head continues to highlight slack in labor market, subdued wages and the weakness in housing.
  • Will retain the bearish outlook for the USDOLLAR as U.S. Retail Sales, Yellen Testimony fails to prop up interest rate expectations.

GBP/USD:

  • Bullish outlook remains favorable as price & the Relative Strength Index (RSI) retain the bullish trend from earlier this year.
  • Appears to have carved a higher-low around 1.7065 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) as stronger inflation raises bets for Bank of England (BoE) rate hike.
  • With U.K. Jobless Claims expected to contract another 27.0K in June, a positive market reaction may trigger a more meaningful run at the 1.7200 pivot, followed by confluence of Fibonacci expansions around 1.7220-30.

NZD/USD:

  • New Zealand dollar may trade to fresh record-highs over the next 24-hours of trade as New Zealand inflation is expected to pick up, while China GDP figures are anticipated to show a faster rate of growth for the second-quarter.
  • The 2011 high (0.8841) remains the key topside level to watch followed by the 0.8850 region (61.8% Fib expansion) ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policy meeting on July 23.
  • Credit Suisse Overnight Index Swaps (OIS) shows market participants are pricing a 91% chance for a 25bp rate hike next week.

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Bearish USD Sentiment Remains Favored as Fed Chair Yellen Preserves Dovish Tone

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Read More:

Price & Time: Focus Still on the Antipodeans

NZDUSD Opening Range Setup- Rally Vulnerable Sub 8850

USDOLLAR Daily

Bearish USD Sentiment Remains Favored as Fed Chair Yellen Preserves Dovish Tone

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Interim Resistance: 10,508 (61.8% retracement) to 10,524 (38.2% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 10,354 (Oct. low) to 10,375 (50.0& retracement)

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Advance Retail Sales (JUN)

12:30

0.6%

0.2%

Advance Retail Sales ex Autos (JUN)

12:30

0.5%

0.4%

Advance Retail Sales ex Auto and Gas (JUN)

12:30

0.5%

0.4%

Advance Retail Sales Control Group (JUN)

12:30

0.5%

0.6%

Empire Manufacturing (JUL)

12:30

17.00

25.60

Import Price Index (MoM) (JUN)

12:30

0.4%

0.1%

Import Price Index (YoY) (JUN)

12:30

1.1%

1.2%

Business Inventories (MAY)

14:00

0.6%

Fed Chair Janet Yellen Testifies to Senate Committee

14:00

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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