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USD Continues to Carve Lower-Highs; Broader EUR/USD Range in Focus

USD Continues to Carve Lower-Highs; Broader EUR/USD Range in Focus

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- Bearish USDOLLAR Outlook Remains Favored Amid String of Lower-Highs

- EUR/USD Needs Close Below 1.3570-80 to Favor Further Decline

- AUD/USD Threatens Bullish Formation Ahead of RBA Minutes

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10409.99

10419.82

10384.82

0.11

115.91%

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index remains capped by trendline resistance; favors downside bias as the USD continues to carve string over lower highs & lows this week.
  • Despite the greater discussion to normalize monetary policy, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes failed to present anything new that would spur a material shift in the policy outlook.
  • Focus now turns to the Humphrey-Hawkins Testimony scheduled for next week; may see further USD weakness should Fed Chair Janet Yellen retain a dovish tone for monetary policy.
  • With the USDOLLAR carving a lower-high in July, the October low (10,354) will become the next key level of interest.

EUR/USD:

  • Giving back the weekly advance after failing to push above 1.3650-80 resistance.
  • Need a close below 1.3570 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) along with a break of the bullish trend in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to favor downside targets.
  • Looks poised to retain the broad range amid the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the European Central Bank’s (ECB) non-standard measures.

AUD/USD:

  • Threatens trendline support as Australia Employment disappoints, China trade surplus narrows.
  • Would still need a break below interim support around 0.9330-40 to see a move back towards the 0.9200 handle.
  • Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Minutes, which are due out next week, may trigger another decline in the AUD/USD should the central bank continue to toughen its verbal intervention.

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USD Continues to Carve Lower-Highs; Broader EUR/USD Range in Focus

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USDOLLAR Daily

USD Continues to Carve Lower-Highs; Broader EUR/USD Range in Focus

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Interim Resistance: 10,602 (38.2 retracement) to 10,615 (78.6 expansion)
  • Interim Support: 10,354 to 10,375 (50.0 retracement)

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Initial Jobless Claims (JUL 5)

12:30

315K

304K

Continuing Claims (JUN 28)

12:30

2565K

2584K

Wholesale Inventories (MAY)

14:00

0.6%

0.5%

Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (MAY)

14:00

0.9%

0.7%

Fed's Esther George Speaks on U.S. Economy

17:15

Fed’s Stanley Fischer Speaks on Financial Reform

20:30

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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