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Bearish USD Setup in Focus Ahead of FOMC Minutes, Yellen Testimony

Bearish USD Setup in Focus Ahead of FOMC Minutes, Yellen Testimony

2014-07-09 17:25:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Preserves Bearish Structure Ahead of FOMC Minutes

- USD/CAD Range in Focus Ahead of Canada Employment Report

- NZD/JPY Close Above 89.50 to Raise Scope for Higher-High

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10412.42

10423.56

10401.55

0.02

75.99%

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

  • Downside remains favorable for Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index as it continues to come off trendline resistance.
  • The dip below 10,406 (1.618% Fibonacci expansion from the August decline) opens the door for a move back towards 10,375 as it appears to be carving a lower-high in July.
  • Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes in focus ahead of the Humphrey-Hawkins Testimony scheduled for next week.
  • May get more of the same from the FOMC as Chair Janet Yellen continues to highlight subdued wages.

USD/CAD:

  • Remains capped by 1.0690-1.0700 (23.6% Fib retracement), while 1.0610-20 (78.6% Fib expansion) holds up as near-term support.
  • A look at the broader channel favors a more meaningful rebound as it straddles trendline support.
  • Canada Employment report is expected to show another 20.0K rise in job growth; strong pickup may prompt a more material shift in the Bank of Canada (BoC) policy as Governor Stephen Poloz scales back willingness to lower the benchmark interest rate further.

NZD/JPY:

  • Making another move at 89.50 pivot, but need a closing price above the region to favor a further advance.
  • Would also like to see a bullish break in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for confirmation/conviction.
  • Will watch the April high (89.91), but the next key topside objective comes in around 90.00 (50.0% Fib expansion)

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Bearish USD Setup in Focus Ahead of FOMC Minutes, Yellen Testimony

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USDOLLAR Daily

Bearish USD Setup in Focus Ahead of FOMC Minutes, Yellen Testimony

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Interim Resistance: 10,602 (38.2 retracement) to 10,615 (78.6 expansion)
  • Interim Support: 10,354 to 10,375 (50.0 retracement)

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

MBA Mortgage Applications (JUL 4)

11:00

--

1.9%

Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Minutes

18:00

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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