Talking Points:
- USDOLLAR Risks Lower-Low as Monthly Opening Range Takes Shape
- NZD/USD Climbs to Fresh Monthly High as Fitch Upgrades Outlook
- Bullish GBP/JPY Outlook Favored as Former Resistance Acts as New Support
|
Index |
Last |
High |
Low |
Daily Change (%) |
Daily Range (% of ATR) |
|
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index |
10409.4 |
10425.34 |
10405.77 |
-0.14 |
66.88% |
USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):
- Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index appears to have carved another lower-high in July as it fails to push back above former support around 10,440 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) & retains descending channel.
- Relative Strength Index (RSI) started to look constructive, but a failure to push back above 50 raises risk for a further decline.
- 10,406 (1.618% Fibonacci expansion from the August decline) appears to be acting as soft support; Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes may set the tone for the rest of the month.
- May continue to see lower highs & lows should we get more of the same from the Fed policy statement.
NZD/USD:
- Spiked into a fresh monthly high of 0.8804 as Fitch raised New Zealand’s credit rating outlook to ‘positive’ from ‘stable.’
- Appears to be carving higher-low as it bounces off of trendline support; would like to see a close above 0.8800 to favor a further advance in NZD/USD.
- Next topside objective comes in around 0.8850 (61.8% Fib expansion from February)
- China Consumer Price Index (CPI) may generate a bearish reaction in the New Zealand dollar as headline reading for inflation is expected to cool to an annualized 2.4% from 2.5% in May.
GBP/JPY:
- Bullish outlook favored for GBP/JPY as it breaks out of consolidation phase; upward trending channel in focus.
- Looks like former resistance around 173.60-80 is offering support ahead of Bank of England (BoE) meeting..
- Will look for opportunities to ‘buy dips’ as the bullish breakout gathers pace; break above 175.30-40 to expose 177.40/50 (100% Fib expansion).
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Read More:
EURUSD July Opening Range Play- Shorts Favored Sub 1.37
Short-term Reversals Develop in GBP-crosses - Sell Highs or Buy Dips?
USDOLLAR Daily
Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
- Interim Resistance: 10,602 (38.2 retracement) to 10,615 (78.6 expansion)
- Interim Support: 10,354 to 10,375 (50.0 retracement)
|
Release |
GMT |
Expected |
Actual |
|
NFIB Small Business Optimism (JUN) |
11:30 |
97.0 |
95.0 |
|
Fed's Jeffrey Lacker Speaks on U.S. Economy |
17:00 | ||
|
Fed's Narayana Kocherlakota Speaks on Monetary Policy |
17:45 | ||
|
Consumer Credit (MAY) |
19:00 |
$20.000B |
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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst
To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.
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