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British Pound surges after UK exit poll shows Conservatives expected to win 368 seats out of 650

AUD/USD Breaks Down From Bullish Formation- GBP/AUD in Focus

AUD/USD Breaks Down From Bullish Formation- GBP/AUD in Focus

2014-07-03 15:45:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Benefits From 288K NFP; Struggles to Push Back Above Former Support

- EUR/USD Fails to Maintain Bullish Setup as ECB Sees T-LTRO Up to EUR 1T

- AUD/USD Holds Near-Term Support Despite Stronger RBA Verbal Intervention

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10433.91

10442.4

10391.22

0.42

159.68%

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index & the Relative Strength Index (RSI) breaks out of the bearish trend as Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) climb 288K, jobless rate slips to 6.1% - lowest since September 2008.
  • However, former support around 10,440 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) appears to be acting as new resistance.
  • Bearish outlook remains as USDOLLAR retains broader downward trending channel from earlier this year, with the next topside objective stands at the 10,470 pivot.
  • Questions remains whether 288K NFP will alter the Fed’s policy outlook.

EUR/USD:

  • Fails to retain the bullish setup from June as European Central Bank (ECB) stands unanimous on non-standard measures & sees targeted Long-Term Refinancing Operations (LTRO) reaching up to EUR 1T.
  • As the pair turns around ahead of the 1.3700 handle, could see a more meaningful assault on 1.3500 as ECB presses on with easing cycle.
  • Will watch support/resistance for now as RSI remains stuck in wedge/triangle formation.

AUD/USD:

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AUD/USD Breaks Down From Bullish Formation- GBP/AUD in Focus

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Price & Time: Dollar Dead Cat or Real Reversal?

Trade Setups in EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD for ECB, NFPs

USDOLLAR Daily

AUD/USD Breaks Down From Bullish Formation- GBP/AUD in Focus

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Interim Resistance: 10,602 (38.2 retracement) to 10,615 (78.6 expansion)
  • Interim Support: 10,354 to 10,375 (50.0 retracement)

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Change in Non-Farm Payrolls (JUN)

12:30

215K

288K

Unemployment Rate (JUN)

12:30

6.3%

3.1%

Labor Force Participation Rate (JUN)

12:30

62.8%

Change in Private Payrolls (JUN)

12:30

215K

262K

Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (JUN)

12:30

10K

16K

Two-Month Payroll Net Revision (JUN)

12:30

29K

Change in Household Employment (JUN)

12:30

407

Underemployment Rate (JUN)

12:30

12.1%

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (JUN)

12:30

0.2%

0.2%

Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (JUN)

12:30

1.9%

2.0%

Average Weekly Hours (JUN)

12:30

34.5

34.5

Trade Balance (MAY)

12:30

-$45.0B

-$44.4B

Initial Jobless Claims (JUN 28)

12:30

313K

315K

Continuing Claims (JUN 21)

12:30

2560K

2579K

Markit Purchasing Manager Index Services (JUN F)

13:45

61.0

61.0

Markit Purchasing Manager Index Composite (JUN F)

13:45

61.0

ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite (JUN)

14:00

56.3

56.0

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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