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Bearish USD Setup Remains in Play; EUR/AUD Risks Lower-Low on ECB

Bearish USD Setup Remains in Play; EUR/AUD Risks Lower-Low on ECB

2014-07-01 15:30:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Slips to Fresh 2014 Low as ISM Manufacturing Disappoints

- AUD/USD Breaks Out Following Neutral RBA; 0.9500-20 Up Next

- EUR/AUD Eyes June Low (1.4358) Ahead of ECB Meeting

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10372.6

10396.41

10365.18

-0.14

99.36%

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

  • Downside targets remain favorable for the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index as price & the Relative Strength Index (RSI) retain bearish momentum.
  • October low (10,354) remains the next downside objective; will look for a close below 10,375 (50.0% Fib retracement) for confirmation/conviction.
  • Focus turns to Non-Farm Payrolls (+210K), but need larger gains in job growth to spur a material shift in the Fed’s policy outlook.
  • Will retain approach to ‘sell bounces’ in the USD as long as Fed remains reluctant to move away from its easing cycle.

AUD/USD:

  • Climbs to a fresh 2014 high (0.9492); Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) retains neutral tone for monetary policy.
  • Next topside objective comes in around 0.9500 (38.2% Fib retracement) to 0.9520 (78.6% Fib retracement).
  • Will continue to favor topside targets as long as price & RSI maintain the bullish formations..

EUR/AUD

  • Breaks below near-term support (1.4430) ahead of European Central Bank (ECB) meeting.
  • Appears to have carved a series of lower-highs in June, raising risk for a lower-low in July.
  • Break below the June low (1.4358) to expose 1.4320-30, key Fibonacci confluence zone.

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Bearish USD Setup Remains in Play; EUR/AUD Risks Lower-Low on ECB

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Read More:

Price & Time: EUR/USD "Flips the Script"

GBP/USD Breakouts Out, GBP/CHF Next - EUR/USD Jumpy Pre-ECB, NFPs

USDOLLAR Daily

Bearish USD Setup Remains in Play; EUR/AUD Risks Lower-Low on ECB

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Interim Resistance: 10,602 (38.2 retracement) to 10,615 (78.6 expansion)
  • Interim Support: 10,354 to 10,375 (50.0 retracement)

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Markit Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JUN F)

13:45

57.5

57.3

ISM Manufacturing (JUN)

14:00

55.9

55.3

ISM Prices Paid (JUN)

14:00

60.0

58.0

Construction Spending (MoM) (MAY)

14:00

0.5%

0.1%

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (JUL)

14:00

48.0

45.6

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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