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AUD/JPY Holds Support Ahead of RBA- GBP/USD Carving Higher-High?

AUD/JPY Holds Support Ahead of RBA- GBP/USD Carving Higher-High?

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Carving Lower-Low Going Into End of Month/Quarter

- Bullish GBP/USD Outlook Remains Favorable for July

- AUD/JPY Holds Near-Term Support; Will RBA Toughen Verbal Intervention?

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10385.07

10420.9

10383.42

-0.22

112.95%

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index continues to carve lower highs & lows as it slips to 10,382.
  • RSI retains bearish momentum; break below 40 continues to favor downside targets.
  • Despite the positive data prints, focus remains on Non-Farm Payrolls (+210K) as Fed retains dovish tone for monetary policy.
  • May (10,370) & October (10,354) remain in focus as USDOLLAR fails to hold 10,406 (1.618% Fibonacci expansion).

GBP/USD:

  • Rallies to fresh monthly high of 1.7112 despite slowdown in U.K. Mortgage Approvals (61.7K).
  • Will continue to look for a series of higher highs & lows in July as Bank of England (BoE) continues to show greater willingness to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later.
  • Next key level of interest comes in at 1.7110-20 (78.6% Fib expansion from March advance).

AUD/JPY

  • Bounces back from near-term support (95.10-20) ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy meeting.
  • Remains capped by 96.00 following the string of failed attempts to close above the key figure; bearish RSI momentum remains in play.
  • RBA is widely expected to keep the benchmark interest rate at 2.50%; focus turns to verbal intervention.

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AUD/JPY Holds Support Ahead of RBA- GBP/USD Carving Higher-High?

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Read More:

Price & Time: Watching the Greenback Closely

Top Tier Economic Data: RBA, ECB and U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls

USDOLLAR Daily

AUD/JPY Holds Support Ahead of RBA- GBP/USD Carving Higher-High?

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Interim Resistance: 10,602 (38.2 retracement) to 10,615 (78.6 expansion)
  • Interim Support: 10,354 to 10,375 (50.0 retracement)

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

NAPM-Milwaukee (JUN)

13:00

60.00

60.57

Chicago Purchasing Manager (JUN)

13:45

63.0

62.6

Pending Home Sales (MoM) (MAY)

14:00

1.5%

6.1%

Pending Home Sales (YoY) (MAY)

14:00

-9.0%

-6.9%

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (JUN)

14:30

8.5

11.4

Fed's John Williams to Speaks on U.S. Economy

17:10

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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