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USD/JPY Risks Further Declines Amid Deviation in BoJ & Fed Policy

USD/JPY Risks Further Declines Amid Deviation in BoJ & Fed Policy

2014-06-27 16:00:00
David Song, Strategist
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Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Slips to Fresh Monthly Low; Bearish Setup Remain Intact Ahead of NFP

- USD/JPY Extends Decline as Bearish RSI Break Takes Shape

- EUR/AUD in Focus Ahead of RBA & ECB Policy Meetings

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10416.84

10427.98

10406.49

-0.09

66.14%

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index remains at risk for lower-highs & lower-lows in July as price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) retain the bearish trends.
  • Still waiting & watching for the RSI to break below 40 to favor a further decline.
  • Even though Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) are projected to increase 210K in June, the May (10,370) & October (10,354) lows remain the next key levels of interest as the Fed retains its current approach for monetary policy.

USD/JPY:

  • Slips to fresh monthly low of 101.30; close below 200-Day SMA (101.63) would be the first since October 2013.
  • Keeping a close eye on the RSI as it appears to be breaking down from the bullish trend from earlier this year.
  • Next key level of interest comes in at 101.00 (50.0% Fibonacci retracement from October advance).

EUR/AUD

  • Appears to have carved a series of lower-highs in June as pair retains bearish RSI momentum.
  • 20-Day SMA (1.4506) lining up very nicely with near-term trendline resistance; favors looking for opportunities to ‘sell bounces’
  • Reserve Bank of Australia widely expected to retain its current policy, while European Central Bank (ECB) may sound increasingly dovish as they continue to implement non-standard measures.

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USD/JPY Risks Further Declines Amid Deviation in BoJ & Fed Policy

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Read More:

Sell the Rips & Buy the Dips?

AUDCHF Rebounds Off Key Support- Longs Favored Above 8360

USDOLLAR Daily

USD/JPY Risks Further Declines Amid Deviation in BoJ & Fed Policy

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Interim Resistance: 10,602 (38.2 retracement) to 10,615 (78.6 expansion)
  • Interim Support: 10,354 to 10,375 (50.0 retracement)

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

U. of Michigan Confidence (JUN F)

13:55

82.0

82.5

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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