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USD/JPY Threatens Bullish RSI Momentum Ahead of Japan CPI

USD/JPY Threatens Bullish RSI Momentum Ahead of Japan CPI

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR to Resume Bearish Trend; Lower-Low on Tap?

- USD/JPY Slips to Fresh Monthly Low (101.47); Threatens Bullish RSI Momentum

- GBP/JPY Testing Channel Support Despite Hawkish BoE

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10430.24

10439.04

10423.72

-0.04

47.15%

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index continues to hold monthly low; need downside break to favor bearish forecast for July
  • Continue to watch bearish RSI momentum; break below 40 to highlight further declines.
  • 10,406 (1.618%% Fibonacci expansion) remains the next downside objectives followed by the May (10,370) & October (10,354) lows.

USD/JPY:

  • Breaks below 200-Day SMA (101.61) & slips to fresh monthly low of 101.47.
  • 101.40-50 (78.6% Fib retracement) remains a major hurdle; next downside target comes in at 100.90-101.00 (50.0% retracement) should daily RSI show bearish break.
  • With Japan Consumer Price Index (CPI) expected to climb an annualized 3.7% in May; may have larger impact on Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy outlook.

GBP/JPY

  • Preserves long-term bullish trend; ascending triangle formation continues to take shape.
  • Watching former resistance zone (172.30-60) for near-term support as Bank of England (BoE) continues to endorse hawkish tone.
  • Lack of momentum to preserve near-term bull trend on daily RSI raises risk for larger correction.

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USD/JPY Threatens Bullish RSI Momentum Ahead of Japan CPI

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Read More:

Price & Time: End of Month Turns Eyed in Several Key Markets

GBPJPY Testing Key Inflection Zone- Shorts at Risk Above 172.70

USDOLLAR Daily

USD/JPY Threatens Bullish RSI Momentum Ahead of Japan CPI

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Interim Resistance: 10,602 (38.2 retracement) to 10,615 (78.6 expansion)
  • Interim Support: 10,354 to 10,375 (50.0 retracement)

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Initial Jobless Claims (JUN 21)

12:30

310K

312K

Continuing Claims (JUN 14)

12:30

2565K

2571K

Personal Income (MAY)

12:30

0.4%

0.4%

Personal Spending (MAY)

12:30

0.4%

0.2%

Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (MoM) (MAY)

12:30

0.3%

0.2%

Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (YoY) (MAY)

12:30

1.8%

1.8%

Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (MoM) (MAY)

12:30

0.2%

0.2%

Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY) (MAY)

12:30

1.5%

1.5%

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity (JUN)

15:00

10

6

Fed's James Bullard Speaks on Monetary Policy

17:05

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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