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Dollar Vulnerable to Dismal 1Q GDP; EUR/USD Monthly Range in Focus

Dollar Vulnerable to Dismal 1Q GDP; EUR/USD Monthly Range in Focus

2014-06-24 16:55:00
David Song, Strategist
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Talking Points:

- Bearish USDOLLAR Setup Remains in Focus Ahead of Final 1Q GDP.

- EUR/USD Breaks Out of Bearish Formation; June Range in Focus.

- AUD/JPY Remains Vulnerable Amid String of Failed Attempts to Close Above 96.00.

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10456.69

10459.63

10426.55

0.26

99.28%

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

  • Despite mixed batch of U.S. data, downside targets remain favorable ahead of final 1Q GDP (-1.8%) as price & RSI retain bearish setup.
  • Next downside level of interest comes in around 10,406, the 1.618% Fib expansion from the August decline.
  • May (10,370) & October (10,354) remain the bigger figures to watch as USDOLLAR remains at risk for lower-lows.

EUR/USD:

  • Monthly range in focus as pair threatens downward trending channel.
  • Former support around 1.3670-80 (61.8% retracement) may act as new resistance.
  • Failure to carve fresh monthly highs/lows to highlight range-bound prices ahead of European Central Bank’s (ECB) July 3 meeting.

AUD/JPY

  • Continues to mark string of failed attempts to close above 96.00.
  • Downside targets in focus as bearish RSI momentum continues to take shape.
  • Former resistance around 95.10-20 (61.8% retracement & 50.0% expansion) seen as interim support.

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Dollar Vulnerable to Dismal 1Q GDP; EUR/USD Monthly Range in Focus

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USDOLLAR Daily

Dollar Vulnerable to Dismal 1Q GDP; EUR/USD Monthly Range in Focus

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Interim Resistance: 10,602 (38.2 retracement) to 10,615 (78.6 expansion)
  • Interim Support: 10,354 to 10,375 (50.0 retracement)

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Fed's Charles Plosser Speaks on U.S. Economy, Monetary Policy

12:05

House Price Index (MoM) (APR)

13:00

0.5%

0.0%

S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 s.a. (MoM) (APR)

13:00

0.80%

0.19%

S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) (APR)

13:00

11.50%

10.82%

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (APR)

13:00

169.57

168.71

Consumer Confidence (JUN)

14:00

83.5

85.2

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (JUN)

14:00

7

3

New Home Sales (MAY)

14:00

439K

504K

New Home Sales (MoM) (MAY)

14:00

1.4%

18.6%

Fed's John Williams Speaks on U.S. Economy

22:30

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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