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USD Threatens Bearish Setup Ahead of FOMC- NZD/USD in Focus on 1Q GDP

USD Threatens Bearish Setup Ahead of FOMC- NZD/USD in Focus on 1Q GDP

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Continues to Threaten Bearish Formation Ahead of FOMC

- GBP/USD Outlook Remains Bullish Despite Unanimous BoE Vote

- NZD/USD Risks Fresh Highs on Dovish Fed, New Zealand 1Q GDP





Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index






USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

  • Fed’s updated projects for growth, inflation and interest rate will be key focus.
  • With USDOLLAR threatening trendline resistance, we need a bullish break in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to favor topside targets.
  • At risk for lower-low on dovish statement from Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).


  • Despite unanimous vote, BoE continues to show greater willingness to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later
  • Seems as BoE Favors Stronger British Pound as it helps to achieve price stability.
  • Favor ‘buying dips’ as we look for a higher-low.


  • Remains capped by 0.8690-0.8700 (78.6% retracement), but breaks out of bearish RSI momentum
  • Former trendline resistance on RSI appears to be offering support
  • A pickup in New Zealand 1Q GDP (1.1%) could heighten rate hike expectations for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) July 23 meeting.

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USD Threatens Bearish Setup Ahead of FOMC- NZD/USD in Focus on 1Q GDP

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Read More:

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USD Threatens Bearish Setup Ahead of FOMC- NZD/USD in Focus on 1Q GDP

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Looking for Resumption of Bearish Trend on Dovish FOMC
  • Interim Resistance: 10,602 (38.2 retracement) to 10,615 (78.6 expansion)
  • Interim Support: 10,354 to 10,375 (50.0 retracement)





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Former Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks on U.S. Economy


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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

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