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USD Threatens Bearish Setup Ahead of FOMC- NZD/USD in Focus on 1Q GDP

USD Threatens Bearish Setup Ahead of FOMC- NZD/USD in Focus on 1Q GDP

2014-06-18 17:20:00
David Song, Strategist
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Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Continues to Threaten Bearish Formation Ahead of FOMC

- GBP/USD Outlook Remains Bullish Despite Unanimous BoE Vote

- NZD/USD Risks Fresh Highs on Dovish Fed, New Zealand 1Q GDP

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10470.92

10481.95

10466.56

-0.05

48.64%

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

  • Fed’s updated projects for growth, inflation and interest rate will be key focus.
  • With USDOLLAR threatening trendline resistance, we need a bullish break in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to favor topside targets.
  • At risk for lower-low on dovish statement from Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

GBP/USD:

  • Despite unanimous vote, BoE continues to show greater willingness to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later
  • Seems as BoE Favors Stronger British Pound as it helps to achieve price stability.
  • Favor ‘buying dips’ as we look for a higher-low.

NZD/USD

  • Remains capped by 0.8690-0.8700 (78.6% retracement), but breaks out of bearish RSI momentum
  • Former trendline resistance on RSI appears to be offering support
  • A pickup in New Zealand 1Q GDP (1.1%) could heighten rate hike expectations for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) July 23 meeting.

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USD Threatens Bearish Setup Ahead of FOMC- NZD/USD in Focus on 1Q GDP

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Read More:

Price & Time: Don’t Forget About Switzerland

Running of the Bull: How FOMC Can Spark a USD Rally

USDOLLAR Daily

USD Threatens Bearish Setup Ahead of FOMC- NZD/USD in Focus on 1Q GDP

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Looking for Resumption of Bearish Trend on Dovish FOMC
  • Interim Resistance: 10,602 (38.2 retracement) to 10,615 (78.6 expansion)
  • Interim Support: 10,354 to 10,375 (50.0 retracement)

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Current Account Balance (1Q)

12:30

-$97.0B

-$111.2B

Former Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks on U.S. Economy

17:45

Fed QE3 Pace

18:00

$35B

Fed Pace of Treasury Purchases

18:00

$20B

Fed Pace of MBS Purchases

18:00

$15B

Federal Open Market Committee Interest Rate Decision

18:00

0.25%

Fed Chair Janet Yellen Holds Press Conference

18:30

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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