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AUD/USD Holds Above Former Resistance- Will RBA Trigger Fresh Highs?

AUD/USD Holds Above Former Resistance- Will RBA Trigger Fresh Highs?

2014-06-16 16:35:00
David Song, Strategist
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Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Remains Capped by 10,470 Pivot; Another Lower-High?

- GBP/USD Rallies to Fresh 2014 High (1.7009) Ahead of U.K. Consumer Price Index (CPI)

- AUD/NZD Threatens Bullish Momentum; RBA Minutes in Focus

The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) slipped to a fresh monthly low (10,440) despite the positive data prints coming out of the U.S. economy, and the greenback may continue to give back the rebound from May (10,370) as the bearish momentum in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in play.

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10448.84

10464.19

10441.44

-0.10

70.82%

Indeed, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision highlights the biggest event risk for the greenback as the central bank publishes its updated forecast, but the policy meeting may continue to drag on interest rate expectations as Chair Janet Yellen remains in no rush to normalize monetary policy.

With that said, the dollar remains at risk of carving lower-highs & lower-lows throughout the summer months, and the reserve currency may face additional headwinds in the second-half of the year unless we see a material shift in the policy outlook.

AUD/USD Holds Above Former Resistance- Will RBA Trigger Fresh Highs?

Join DailyFX on Demandto Cover Current U.S. dollar Trade Setups

Read More:

Price & Time: Euro Still A Sell On Rallies?

COT: Euro Speculators are Now Most Short Since Last June

USDOLLAR Daily

AUD/USD Holds Above Former Resistance- Will RBA Trigger Fresh Highs?

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Bearish RSI Momentum Raises Risk for Further Lower-Highs & Lower-Lows
  • Interim Resistance: 10,602 (38.2 retracement) to 10,615 (78.6 expansion)
  • Interim Support: 10,354 to 10,375 (50.0 retracement)

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Empire Manufacturing (JUN)

12:30

15.00

19.28

Net Long-term TIC Flows (APR)

13:00

$37.5B

-$24.2B

Total Net TIC Flows (APR)

13:00

--

$136.8B

Industrial Production (MAY)

13:15

0.5%

0.6%

Capacity Utilization (MAY)

13:15

78.9%

79.1%

Manufacturing Production (SIC) (MAY)

13:15

0.6%

0.6%

NAHB Housing Market Index (JUN)

14:00

47

49

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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