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Bullish Pound Outlook Favored Ahead of BoE- GBP/AUD Risks Major Break

Bullish Pound Outlook Favored Ahead of BoE- GBP/AUD Risks Major Break

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Technical Outlook Remains Bearish Ahead of FOMC Meeting

- GBP/AUD at Risk for Key Break Going Into RBA, BoE Minutes

- EUR/NZD Rebound to Generate Lower-High; Former Support in Focus

The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) is struggling to push back above the 10,470 pivot amid the slew of dismal developments coming out of the world’s largest economy, and the greenback may face further headwinds in the week ahead should the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) continue to highlight a dovish tone for monetary policy.

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10467.38

10469.44

10442.02

0.17

82.86%

Despite expectations for another $10B taper, we may get more of the same with the FOMC’s June 18 interest rate decision as Chair Janet Yellen remains reluctant to move away from the highly accommodative policy stance, but the updated forecasts (growth, inflation & the interest rate) may foster an improved outlook for the reserve currency should we see a growing number of central bank officials show a greater willingness to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later.

With that said, the dollar may continue to carve lower-highs & lower-lows during the summer months unless we see a material shift in the Fed’s policy outlook, and we will retain a bearish outlook for the reserve currency as the downward trend in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) gathers pace.

Bullish Pound Outlook Favored Ahead of BoE- GBP/AUD Risks Major Break

Join DailyFX on Demandto Cover Current U.S. dollar Trade Setups

Read More:

Price & Time: Keep A Close Eye on Gold

Pre-Fed Price Action Favors GBP/USD Breakout, EUR/USD Outside Bar

USDOLLAR Daily

Bullish Pound Outlook Favored Ahead of BoE- GBP/AUD Risks Major Break

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Bearish RSI Momentum Remains in Focus; 10,470 Pivot to Hold as Resistance?
  • Interim Resistance: 10,602 (38.2 retracement) to 10,615 (78.6 expansion)
  • Interim Support: 10,354 to 10,375 (50.0 retracement)

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Producer Price Index (MoM) (MAY)

12:30

0.1%

-0.2%

Producer Price Index (YoY) (MAY)

12:30

2.4%

2.0%

Producer Price Index ex Food and Energy (MoM) (MAY)

12:30

0.1%

-0.1%

Producer Price Index ex Food and Energy (YoY) (MAY)

12:30

2.3%

2.0%

U. of Michigan Confidence (JUN P)

13:55

83.0

81.2

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

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