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EUR/NZD Risks Bearish Break on RBNZ; GBP/USD Carving Higher-Lows?

EUR/NZD Risks Bearish Break on RBNZ; GBP/USD Carving Higher-Lows?

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Risks Another Lower-High as Bearish RSI Momentum Takes Shape

- GBP/USD to Benefit From U.K. Jobless Claims; Higher-Low in Place?

- EUR/NZD Needs Hawkish RBNZ to Mark Fresh 2014 Lows

The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) show a limited reaction to the positive data prints coming out of the world’s largest economy, and the greenback remains at risk of carving another series of lower-highs & lower-lows over the near-term as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to retain its current approach for monetary policy at the June 18 meeting.

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10506.46

10507.31

10483.77

0.09

77.44%

Indeed, the lack of momentum to trade back above former support suggests that the near-term correction is coming to an end, and the greenback may continue to give back the rebound from back in May (10,370) as the bearish momentum on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) takes shape.

As a result, we continue to look for opportunities to ‘sell bounces’ in the dollar, and the reserve currency may weaken further during the summer months as the fundamental developments coming out of the U.S. economy have a limited impact in spurring a material shift in the Fed’s policy outlook.

EUR/NZD Risks Bearish Break on RBNZ; GBP/USD Carving Higher-Lows?

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USDOLLAR Daily

EUR/NZD Risks Bearish Break on RBNZ; GBP/USD Carving Higher-Lows?

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Bearish RSI Raises Risk for Lower-Highs & Lower-Lows
  • Interim Resistance: 10,602 (38.2 retracement) to 10,615 (78.6 expansion)
  • Interim Support: 10,354 to 10,375 (50.0 retracement)

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

NFIB Small Business Optimism (MAY)

11:30

95.8

96.6

Wholesale Inventories (APR)

14:00

0.6%

1.1%

Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (APR)

14:00

0.9%

1.3%

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

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