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NZD/USD Breaks Out Ahead of RBNZ- EUR/NZD at Risk for Lower Low

NZD/USD Breaks Out Ahead of RBNZ- EUR/NZD at Risk for Lower Low

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Rebounds From 10,470 Pivot (Former Resistance) Following NFPs

- USD/JPY Holds Below May High (103.01) Ahead of BoJ Meeting

- NZD/USD Breaks Out of Descending Channel Ahead of RBNZ Meeting

The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) pared the overnight decline to 10,466 as the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report continued to cast an improved outlook for the U.S. labor market, but the greenback remains at risk of facing a further decline ahead of the Fed’s June 18 meeting as the reserve currency continues to carve a series of lower-highs.

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10494.95

10503.55

10466.42

0.13

120.16%

Despite the pickup in wage growth, the positive development are likely to have a limited impact in spurring a meaningful shift in the policy outlook amid the ongoing slack in the real economy, and it seems as though we will get more of the same this month as Fed Chair Janet Yellen remains reluctant to normalize monetary policy.

With that said, we will continue to look for opportunities to ‘selling bounces’ in the greenback, and the USDOLLAR could be well on its way to fresh 2014 lows as there appears to be a bearish momentum taking shape in the Relative Strength Index (RSI).

NZD/USD Breaks Out Ahead of RBNZ- EUR/NZD at Risk for Lower Low

Join DailyFX on Demandto Cover Current U.S. dollar Trade Setups

Read More:

Price & Time: Important Turn Window Coming Up For Gold

Breakout or Break Down? NZD/USD Eyes Critical Resistance Pre-NFPs

USDOLLAR Daily

NZD/USD Breaks Out Ahead of RBNZ- EUR/NZD at Risk for Lower Low

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • At Risk for Lower-Low as Bearish RSI Momentum Takes Shape
  • Interim Resistance: 10,602 (38.2 retracement) to 10,615 (78.6 expansion)
  • Interim Support: 10,354 to 10,375 (50.0 retracement)

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Change in Non-Farm Payrolls (MAY)

12:30

215K

217K

Unemployment Rate (MAY)

12:30

6.4%

6.3%

Labor Force Participation Rate (MAY)

12:30

62.8%

Change in Private Payrolls (MAY)

12:30

210K

216K

Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (MAY)

12:30

10K

10K

Two-Month Payroll Net Revision (MAY)

12:30

--

-6K

Change in Household Employment (MAY)

12:30

--

145K

Underemployment Rate (MAY)

12:30

--

12.2%

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (MAY)

12:30

0.2%

0.2%

Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (MAY)

12:30

2.0%

2.1%

Average Weekly Hours (MAY)

12:30

34.5

34.5

Consumer Credit (APR)

19:00

$15.000B

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

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