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EUR/USD Outlook Remains Bearish Below Former Support

EUR/USD Outlook Remains Bearish Below Former Support

2014-06-05 16:55:00
David Song, Strategist
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Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Holds Monthly Opening Range Ahead of NFP Report

- EUR/USD Remains Capped by Former Support as ECB Ventures Into Uncharted Territory

- USD/CAD Breakout Gathers Pace Ahead of Canada Employment Report

The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) has given back the market reaction to the European Central Bank (ECB) rate cut as it falls back from a fresh monthly high of 10,541, but we may see greenback consolidate ahead of the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report as the reserve currency holds above the opening monthly low for June.

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10494.09

10541.05

10490.28

-0.32

170.52%

Despite expectations for seeing another 215K rise in U.S. employment, the jobless rate is expected to increase to an annualized 6.4 percent from 6.3 percent in April, and a mixed batch of data print may continue to produce range-bound prices in the greenback as the Federal Reserve sticks to its current approach for monetary policy. At the same time, Average Weekly Earnings are projected to increase an annualized 2.0 percent during the same period following the 1.9% expansion the month prior, but we would need to see a marked pickup in wage growth to see a more material shift in the Fed’s policy outlook as Chair Janet Yellen retains a dovish outlook for inflation.

With that said, the USDOLLAR remains at risk of carving another lower top as long as it holds below the April high (10,572), and the greenback may face additional headwinds going into the Fed’s June 18 meeting as the central bank remains in no rush to normalize monetary policy.

EUR/USD Outlook Remains Bearish Below Former Support

Join DailyFX on Demand to Cover Current U.S. dollar Trade Setups

Read More:

Price & Time: Don’t Forget About the Yen

Euro May have Bottomed on Post-ECB Tumbles. Why?

USDOLLAR Daily

EUR/USD Outlook Remains Bearish Below Former Support

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Holds Opening Monthly Low, But Remains at Risk of Carving Lower-High
  • Interim Resistance: 10,602 (38.2 retracement) to 10,615 (78.6 expansion)
  • Interim Support: 10,354 to 10,375 (50.0 retracement)

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (MAY)

11:30

--

45.5%

Initial Jobless Claims (MAY 31)

12:30

310K

312K

Continuing Claims (MAY 24)

12:30

2625K

2603K

Household Change in Net Worth (1Q)

16:00

--

Fed's Narayana Kocherlakota Speaks on Interest Rates

17:30

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

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