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EUR/USD to Threaten Range, EUR/AUD Risks Fresh Lows on ECB Easing

EUR/USD to Threaten Range, EUR/AUD Risks Fresh Lows on ECB Easing

2014-06-04 15:35:00
David Song, Strategist
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Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Remains in Holding Pattern- Will NFPs Disappoint?

- EUR/USD Resistance/Support in Focus Ahead of ECB Rate Decision

- USD/CAD Rally Fizzles on Neutral BoC- Need Close Above 1.0930

The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) continues to fall back from a fresh monthly high of 10,535 amid the mixed batch of data coming out of the world’s largest economy, and the greenback may face additional headwinds over the remainder of the week should the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report fall short of market expectations.

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10526.44

10535.07

10510.02

0.07

89.10%

On the other hand, the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision may boost the appeal of the reserve currency as the Governing Council is widely anticipated to further embark on its easing cycle in June, and we may see a sharp pickup in market volatility overthe next 24-hours of trade as market participants weigh the outlook for monetary policy.

With that said, a very dovish statement from the ECB paired with an upbeat NFP report may drive the dollar higher throughout June, but we would need to see a break and close above the April high (10,572) to favor a more bullish forecast for the greenback as the Federal Reserve remains reluctant to move away from its highly accommodative policy stance.

EUR/USD to Threaten Range, EUR/AUD Risks Fresh Lows on ECB Easing

Join DailyFX on Demand to Cover Current U.S. dollar Trade Setups

Read More:

Price & Time: The EUR/USD Fork in the Road

GBP/USD Hammers as MACD Cross Develops. GBP/JPY Tests Range Top

USDOLLAR Daily

EUR/USD to Threaten Range, EUR/AUD Risks Fresh Lows on ECB Easing

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Remains at Risk of Carving Near-Term Top in June
  • Interim Resistance: 10,602 (38.2 retracement) to 10,615 (78.6 expansion)
  • Interim Support: 10,354 to 10,375 (50.0 retracement)

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

MBA Mortgage Applications (MAY 30)

11:00

--

-3.1%

ADP Employment Change (MAY)

12:15

210K

179K

Trade Balance (APR)

12:30

-$40.8B

-$47.2B

Non-Farm Productivity (1Q F)

12:30

-3.0%

-3.2%

Unit Labor Costs (1Q F)

12:30

5.3%

5.7%

Markit Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAY F)

13:45

58.2

58.1

Markit Purchasing Manager Index Composite (MAY F)

13:45

--

58.4

ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite (MAY)

14:00

55.5

56.3

DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAY 30)

14:30

-250K

-3431K

DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAY 30)

14:30

900K

2012K

DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAY 30)

14:30

400K

210K

Federal Reserve Publishes Beige Book

18:00

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

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