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USD/JPY at Risk for Lower Low on Japan CPI- 100.50 in Focus

USD/JPY at Risk for Lower Low on Japan CPI- 100.50 in Focus

2014-05-29 17:20:00
David Song, Strategist
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Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR at Risk of Carving Lower High Amid Bearish RSI Break

- USD/JPY Dips Back Below 101.50 Ahead of Japan CPI

- USD/CAD Downward Trend in Focus Ahead of Canada 1Q GDP

The near-term advance in the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) appears to be coming to an end as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) fails to maintain the bullish momentum from earlier this year.

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10506.97

10527.63

10495.09

-0.19

102.85%

In light of the marked downward revision to the 1Q GDP print, the ongoing weakness in U.S. economy may continue to drag on interest rate expectations, and it seems as though the greenback is carving out a lower-high ahead of the next Fed meeting on June 18 as the fundamental developments coming out of the region limits the scope for a material change in the policy outlook.

With that said, we will revert back to the approach of ‘selling bounces’ in the greenback should we continue to see a series of lower-highs & lower-lows in the USDOLLAR, but the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on tap for the week ahead may heighten the appeal of the reserve currency as the Governing Council is widely expected to further embark on its easing cycle.

USD/JPY at Risk for Lower Low on Japan CPI- 100.50 in Focus

Join DailyFX on Demand to Cover Current U.S. dollar Trade Setups

Read More:

Price & Time: Caution Required in the Kiwi Over the Next Few Days

Euro and Gold Prices Near Critical Levels - What’s the Next Move?

USDOLLAR Daily

USD/JPY at Risk for Lower Low on Japan CPI- 100.50 in Focus

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Failure to Maintain Bullish RSI Momentum to Highlight Lower High
  • Interim Resistance: 10,602 (38.2 retracement) to 10,615 (78.6 expansion)
  • Interim Support: 10,354 to 10,375 (50.0 retracement)

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (1Q S)

12:30

-0.5%

-1.0%

Personal Consumption (1Q S)

12:30

3.1%

3.1%

Gross Domestic Product Price Index (1Q S)

12:30

1.3%

1.3%

Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (QoQ) (1Q S)

12:30

1.3%

1.2%

Initial Jobless Claims (MAY 24)

12:30

318K

300K

Continuing Claims (MAY 17)

12:30

2650K

2631K

Pending Home Sales (MoM) (APR)

14:00

1.0%

0.4%

Pending Home Sales (YoY) (APR)

14:00

-8.9%

-9.4%

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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