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AUD/JPY Carving Lower High as Rebound Stalls at Former Support

AUD/JPY Carving Lower High as Rebound Stalls at Former Support

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Rebound at Risk as 1Q GDP Contracts; RSI in Focus

- AUD/JPY Fails to Push Above Former Support (0.9430-50); Lower High in Place?

- XAU/USD Breaks Down; Close Below Support to Favor Further Decline

Despite the limited reaction to the slew of U.S. data prints, the near-term rebound in the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) may continue to take shape ahead of the advance 1Q GDP report as the reserve currency climbs back above former support (10,508-509).

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10514.91

10516.83

10479.65

0.16

118.89%

The dollar may continue to pare the sharp decline from the previous month as the bullish Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum gathers pace, but a marked downward revision in the 1Q growth rate may halt the near-term advance in the greenback as it drags on interest rate expectations.

As a result, the Federal Reserve may show a greater willingness to carry its current policy into the second-half of the year, and the USDOLLAR may continue to carve lower highs & lower lows in the coming months as Chair Janet Yellen remains in no rush to normalize monetary policy.

AUD/JPY Carving Lower High as Rebound Stalls at Former Support

Join DailyFX on Demandto Cover Current U.S. dollar Trade Setups

Read More:

Price & Time: Range Low in the Euro?

COT Positioning of Interest in AUD, JPY, and MXN

USDOLLAR Daily

AUD/JPY Carving Lower High as Rebound Stalls at Former Support

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Topside Targets in Play as Bullish RSI Momentum Remains in Focus
  • Interim Resistance: 10,602 (38.2 retracement) to 10,615 (78.6 expansion)
  • Interim Support: 10,354 to 10,375 (50.0 retracement)

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Durable Goods Orders (APR)

12:30

-0.7%

0.8%

Durables ex Transportation (APR)

12:30

0.0%

0.1%

Non-Defense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircrafts (APR)

12:30

-0.3%

-1.2%

Non-Defense Capital Goods Shipments ex Aircrafts (APR)

12:30

-0.2%

-0.4%

House Price Index (MoM) (MAR)

13:00

0.5%

0.7%

House Price Purchase Index (QoQ) (1Q)

13:00

1.30%

1.30%

S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 s.a. (MoM) (MAR)

13:00

0.70%

1.24%

S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) (MAR)

13:00

11.80%

12.37%

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (MAR)

13:00

166.23

166.80

S&P/Case-Shiller US Home Price Index (1Q)

13:00

--

150.76

S&P/Case-Shiller US Home Price Index (YoY) (1Q)

13:00

9.90%

10.35%

Markit Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAY P)

13:45

54.5

58.5

Markit Purchasing Manager Index Composite (MAY P)

13:45

--

58.6

Consumer Confidence (MAY)

14:00

83.0

83.0

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (MAY)

14:00

8

7

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (MAY)

14:30

9.2

8.0

Fed's Dennis Lockhart Speaks on U.S. Economy

0:10

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

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