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USD/JPY Outlook Turning Increasingly Bearish Amid Less-Dovish BoJ

USD/JPY Outlook Turning Increasingly Bearish Amid Less-Dovish BoJ

2014-05-21 15:45:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Eyes May Opening Range Ahead of FOMC Minutes

- USD/JPY Dips Below 101.00 as BoJ Continues to Soften Dovish Tone

- Bearish EUR/AUD Setup in Focus; Lower High in Place?

The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) is working its way towards the May high (10,495) ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes, but the policy outlook may continue to undermine the appeal of the reserve currency should the central bank show a greater willingness to carry its highly accommodative policy stance into the second-half of 2014.

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10486.9

10488.06

10452.74

0.12

114.33%

The dollar may struggle to retain the advance from earlier this week should the policy statement continue to dampen interest rate expectations, and it seems as though we will get more of the same from the central bank as Fed Chair Janet Yellen continues to see subdued inflation in the world’s largest economy.

Nevertheless, another close above the 10,470 pivot may generate a larger rebound going into the last full-week of May, but the lack of momentum to break above the monthly opening range may limit the scope for a major reversal in the USDOLLAR as it appears to be carving another lower-high going into June.

USD/JPY Outlook Turning Increasingly Bearish Amid Less-Dovish BoJ

Join DailyFX on Demandto Cover Current U.S. dollar Trade Setups

Read More:

Price & Time: Gold Gearing Up For A Powerful Move

USD/JPY Tests Yearly Low as BoJ Refrains - On Cusp of Major Yen Rally?

USDOLLAR Daily

USD/JPY Outlook Turning Increasingly Bearish Amid Less-Dovish BoJ

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Monthly Opening Range in Focus Following Close Above 10,470
  • Interim Resistance: 10,602 (38.2 retracement) to 10,615 (78.6 expansion)
  • Interim Support: 10,354 to 10,375 (50.0 retracement)

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

MBA Mortgage Applications (MAY 16)

11:00

--

0.9%

Fed's William Dudley Speaks on U.S. Economy

14:00

DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAY 16)

14:30

0K

947K

DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAY 16)

14:30

-500K

-1124

DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAY 16)

14:30

0K

-772K

Fed Chair Janet Yellen Speaks on U.S. Economy

15:30

Fed's Esther George Speaks on U.S. Economy

16:50

Fed's Narayana Kocherlakota Speaks on Monetary Policy

17:30

Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Minutes

18:00

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

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