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Bearish AUD/USD Outlook Favored on Close Below 0.9200 Amid Dovish RBA

Bearish AUD/USD Outlook Favored on Close Below 0.9200 Amid Dovish RBA

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Continues to Threaten 10,470 Pivot Ahead of FOMC Minutes

- GBP/USD to Target Fresh Highs on U.K. Retail Sales, Hawkish BoE Minutes

- Bearish AUD/USD Outlook Favored on Dovish RBA Minutes- Need Close Below 0.9200

The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) appears to be making another attempt to break out of the bearish formation from earlier this year, but the greenback may mark another failed attempt to close above the 10,470 pivot as we are likely to get more of the same from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes.

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10469.17

10477.28

10455.9

0.10

70.72%

There’s a limited risk of seeing a material shift in the Fed’s policy outlook as the central bank remains in no rush to normalize monetary policy, and the committee looks poised to retain its current approach going into the second-half of 2014 as Chair Janet Yellen remains reluctant to move away from the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP).

Despite expectations of seeing another $10B taper at the June 18 meeting, the bar remains high for the Fed to normalize monetary policy ahead of schedule, and the USDOLLAR may resume the downward trend from earlier this year as the central bank continues to endorse its highly accommodative policy stance.

Bearish AUD/USD Outlook Favored on Close Below 0.9200 Amid Dovish RBA

Join DailyFX on Demandto Cover Current U.S. dollar Trade Setups

Read More:

Price & Time: About to Throw in the Towel?

GBP/JPY Top Valid Below 171.25, Eyes 169.05; GBP/USD Struggles on CPI

USDOLLAR Daily

Bearish AUD/USD Outlook Favored on Close Below 0.9200 Amid Dovish RBA

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Outlook to Remain Bearish on Another Failed Attempt to Close Above 10,470
  • Interim Resistance: 10,602 (38.2 retracement) to 10,615 (78.6 expansion)
  • Interim Support: 10,354 to 10,375 (50.0 retracement)

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Fed's Charles Plosser Speaks on U.S. Economy

16:30

Fed's William Dudley Speaks on U.S. Economy

17:00

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

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