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EUR/USD at Risk for Breakout as RSI Fails to Retain Bearish Trend

EUR/USD at Risk for Breakout as RSI Fails to Retain Bearish Trend

2014-05-01 15:50:00
David Song, Strategist
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Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Outlook to Turn Increasingly Bearish on Close Below 10,440

- EUR/USD Close Above 1.3850 Highlights Bullish Breakout; All Eyes on ECB

- EUR/NZD Bear Flag Favors Downside Targets; RSI Fails to Preserve Bullish Trend

The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) is struggling to maintain the advance to 10,451 despite the positive data coming out of the world’s largest economy, and the greenback may continue to consolidate ahead of the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report as market participants weigh the outlook for monetary policy.

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10445.74

10450.98

10429.3

0.02

71.81%

Even though NFPs are projected to increase another 215K in April, there was little to suggests that there will be a material shift in the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) policy outlook as the board retains the dovish twist to its forward-guidance, and it seems as though the we will continue to see more of the same from the Fed as Chair Janet Yellen remains reluctant to move away from the zero-interest rate policy.

With that said, the USDOLLAR may continue to carve a series of lower highs & lower lows in May, and we will still look for opportunities to ‘sell bounces’ as the greenback looks poised to give back the advance from back in October (10,354).

EUR/USD at Risk for Breakout as RSI Fails to Retain Bearish Trend

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Read More:

Price & Time: Focus on the Commodity Currencies

AUD/USD Woes Not Shared by GBP/USD - GBP/AUD Breakout Imminent?

USDOLLAR Daily

EUR/USD at Risk for Breakout as RSI Fails to Retain Bearish Trend

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Carves Lower High on April; At Risk for Fresh Lower Low
  • Interim Resistance: 10,602 (38.2 retracement) to 10,615 (78.6 expansion)
  • Interim Support: 10,406 (1.618 expansion)

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (APR)

11:30

Fed Chair Janet Yellen Speaks on U.S. Economy

12:30

Initial Jobless Claims (APR 26)

12:30

320K

344K

Continuing Claims (APR 19)

12:30

2700K

2771K

Personal Income (MAR)

12:30

0.4%

0.5%

Personal Spending (MAR)

12:30

0.6%

0.9%

Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (MoM) (MAR)

12:30

0.2%

0.2%

Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (YoY) (MAR)

12:30

1.1%

1.1%

Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (MoM) (MAR)

12:30

0.2%

0.2%

Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY) (MAR)

12:30

1.2%

1.2%

Markit Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (APR F)

13:45

55.4

55.4.

ISM Manufacturing (APR)

14:00

54.3

54.9

ISM Prices Paid (APR)

14:00

59.3

56.5

Construction Spending (MoM) (MAR)

14:00

0.5%

0.2%

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

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