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Bearish EUR/CAD Momentum Raise Risk for Lower Low- H&S Top in Place?

Bearish EUR/CAD Momentum Raise Risk for Lower Low- H&S Top in Place?

2014-04-29 17:10:00
David Song, Strategist
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Talking Points:

- Will USDOLLAR Finally Close Above 10,470?

- Bullish EUR/CAD Outlook at Risk as Head-and-Shoulders Top Takes Shape

- GBP/CAD Continues to Threaten Trendline Support; RSI Structure in Focus

The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) appears to be making a more meaningful attempt to close above 10,470 despite the dismal data prints coming out of the world’s largest economy, but we will continue to look for a lower high in the reserve currency as there remains a limited risk of seeing a material shift in the Fed’s policy outlook.

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10475.91

10479.33

10464.81

0.05

49.03%

The market reaction to the U.S. 1Q GDP report could be limited even as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to reduce its asset-purchase program by another $10B in April, and the policy statement accompanying the central bank interest rate decision may play a larger role in driving future price action for the USDOLLAR as Fed Chair Janet Yellen remains reluctant to move away from the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP).

Nevertheless, month-end flows may complicate the technical outlook for the greenback as it has a tendency to produce choppy to whipsaw-like price across the major currencies, and we may have to wait for the key fundamental developments coming out over the next 24-hours of trade to see a resumption of the bearish trend as the advance GDP report is expected to show a marked slowdown in the first-quarter, while the Fed is widely expected to retain a dovish tone for monetary policy.

Bearish EUR/CAD Momentum Raise Risk for Lower Low- H&S Top in Place?

Join DailyFX on Demandto Cover Current U.S. dollar Trade Setups

Read More:

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GBP/AUD, GBP/USD Breakouts (or Breakdowns) Linger after UK GDP

USDOLLAR Daily

Bearish EUR/CAD Momentum Raise Risk for Lower Low- H&S Top in Place?

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Close Above 10,470 Risks Another Run at Former Support (10,508)
  • Interim Resistance: 10,602 (38.2 retracement) to 10,615 (78.6 expansion)
  • Interim Support: 10,406 (1.618 expansion)

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 s.a. (MoM) (FEB)

13:00

0.80%

0.76%

S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) (FEB)

13:00

13.00%

12.86%

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (FEB)

13:00

165.43

165.35

Consumer Confidence (APR)

14:00

83.2

82.3

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

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