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USD/JPY Risks Further Losses as Japan Inflation Approaches BoJ Target

USD/JPY Risks Further Losses as Japan Inflation Approaches BoJ Target

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- Will USDOLLAR Mark Another Close Above 10,470?Remains at Risk for Lower High.

- Bullish USD/JPY Outlook at Risk as Japanese Inflation Approaches 2 Percent Target.

- GBP/CHF Continues to Hold Above Former Support; Higher Low in Place?

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10469.85

10491.29

10462.38

-0.03

96.58%

Despite the bullish reaction to the better-than-expected U.S. Durable Goods report, the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) is struggling to maintain the advance to 10,491, and the greenback remains at risk of carving a lower high ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision as the central bank is widely expected to retain its current approach in managing monetary policy.

USD/JPY Risks Further Losses as Japan Inflation Approaches BoJ Target

Even if the Fed delivers another $10B taper at the April 30 meeting, there’s a limited risk of seeing a material shift in the policy outlook as Chair Janet Yellen remains reluctant to move away from the zero-interest rate policy, and the dollar may struggle to hold its ground should the central bank merely reiterate the policy statement from the March 19 rate decision.

With that said, failure to mark another close above the 10,470 pivot may highlight a lower high in the USDOLLAR, and we will preserve our game plan to ‘sell bounces’ in the greenback until we see a clear shift in the Fed’s policy stance.

Join DailyFX on Demandto Cover Current U.S. dollar Trade Setups

Read More:

EUR/USD, GBP/USD Hover Near Breakout Levels - Patience Required

USD/CNH: Chinese Yuan Hits Fresh Lows on Key Fundamental Stresses

USDOLLAR Daily

USD/JPY Risks Further Losses as Japan Inflation Approaches BoJ Target

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Lack of Momentum to Mark Another Close Above 10,470 Risks Lower High
  • Interim Resistance: 10,602 (38.2 retracement) to 10,615 (78.6 expansion)
  • Interim Support: 10,406 (1.618 expansion)

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Durable Goods Orders (MAR)

12:30

2.0%

2.6%

Durables ex Transportation (MAR)

12:30

0.6%

2.0%

Non-Defense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircrafts (MAR)

12:30

1.5%

2.2%

Non-Defense Capital Goods Shipments ex Aircrafts (MAR)

12:30

1.0%

1.0%

Initial Jobless Claims (APR 19)

12:30

315K

329K

Continuing Claims (APR 12)

12:30

2745K

2680K

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity (APR)

15:00

8

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

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