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AUD/USD Failure to Close Above 0.9300 to Favor Downside Targets

AUD/USD Failure to Close Above 0.9300 to Favor Downside Targets

2014-04-04 17:15:00
David Song, Strategist
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Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Preserves Bearish Trend as NFP Misses Market Forecast.

- AUD/USD Continues to Threaten Former Support; RSI Holds Below Overbought.

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10544.61

10572.12

10539.44

-0.17

91.01%

USDOLLAR Daily

AUD/USD - U.S. Dollar Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Carves Lower High as Price Remains Capped by Trendline Resistance
  • Interim Resistance: 10,602 (38.2 retracement) to 10,615 (78.6 expansion)
  • Interim Support: 10,470 Pivot

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Change in Non-farm Payrolls (MAR)

12:30

200K

192K

Unemployment Rate (MAR)

12:30

6.6%

6.7%

Labor Force Participation Rate (MAR)

12:30

63.2%

Change in Private Payrolls (MAR)

12:30

200K

192K

Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (MAR)

12:30

7K

-1K

Two-Month Payroll Net Revision (MAR)

12:30

--

37K

Change in Household Employment (MAR)

12:30

210K

476K

Underemployment Rate (MAR)

12:30

--

12.7%

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (MAR)

12:30

0.2%

0.0%

Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (MAR)

12:30

2.3%

2.1%

Average Weekly Hours (MAR)

12:30

34.4

34.5

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The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) failed to break out of the bearish trend as the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) fell short of market expectations, and the greenback looks poised for a move back towards the 10,500 handle as it continues to carve lower highs paired with lower lows.

In light of recent price action, it seems as though the downward trending channel will continue to take shape in April, and the dollar remains at risk giving back the advance from back in October as price & the Relative Strength Index (RSI) retain the bearish momentum from earlier this year.

With that said, we will continue to look for opportunities to ‘sell bounces’ in the reserve currency, and may see a more meaningful run at the 10,470 pivot this time around as the fundamental developments coming out of the world’s largest economy dampens expectations for seeing a stronger recovery in 2014.

Read More:

Price & Time: Watching Gold For Clues in FX

AUDNZD Approaches Key Inflection Point- 1.0825 Make or Break

AUD/USD Performance

AUD/USD Daily

AUD/USD Daily Chart
  • Failure to Close Above 0.9300 Favors Downside as RSI Holds Below 70
  • Interim Resistance: 0.9270 (78.6 expansion) to 0.9290 Pivot
  • Interim Support: 0.8980 (38.2 expansion) to 0.8990 Pivot

Join DailyFX on Demandto Cover Current Australian dollar Trade Setups

Two of the four components strengthened against the greenback, led by a 0.63 percent rally in the Australian dollar, but the AUD/USD remains at risk for a larger pullback as it remains capped by former support around 0.9290-0.9300.

Indeed, we’ll continue to watch the monthly opening range for the aussie-dollar as it remains stuck in a topping process, and will wait for a break and a close below the 0.9200 to favor the downside targets as it retains the sideways price action carried over from the end of March.

In turn, the fundamental event risks coming out of the $1T and China – Australia’s largest trading partner – may clear up the short-term picture of the AUD/USD, and we may see the pair resume the downward trend from back in 2011 as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) favors the exchange rate close to the 0.8500 handle.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

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